Part of a failed Soviet spacecraft is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere this weekend. Experts predict that the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft could make landfall sometime between 9 and 10 May.
Launched on 31 March 1972, Kosmos 482 failed to leave Earth’s orbit. It was built to travel to Venus but got stranded in low Earth orbit due to a rocket malfunction. The spacecraft, intended to operate similarly to the successful Venera 8 probe, broke into four pieces following its failed mission.
Figure 1: Soviet capsule Venera-4
ESA and Kayhan Space Issue Predictions
The European Space Agency (ESA) forecasted that Kosmos 482 will re-enter Earth’s atmosphere around 2:26 a.m. EDT (06:26 GMT) on 10 May. Their prediction window spans 4.35 hours, suggesting re-entry could occur anytime between 10 p.m. EDT on 9 May and 7 a.m. EDT on 10 May.
Kayhan Space, a Colorado-based company monitoring the craft, provided a narrower forecast. It placed re-entry at 2:28 a.m. EDT (6:28 GMT) on 10 May with a margin of ±2.4 hours. Derek Woods, a senior astrodynamics engineer at Kayhan Space, said, “The atmospheric density in the lower altitudes (50 to 300 km) [30 to 185 miles] is very uncertain, which can result in large prediction uncertainties.”
Probable last UPDATE of Kosmos 482 re entry with data from 🇺🇸 (& friends) Space Force predictions show it as 05:45:00 UTC +/- 1hr. #kosmos482 is a failed mission to Venus launched by URSS in 1972 (Venera spacecraft) other sources give similar points of entry but a larger window pic.twitter.com/Ts73ejzqVg
— Gonzalo (@gblasco78) May 10, 2025
Robust Design May Allow Survival of Re-entry
Experts believe the spacecraft’s descent module could survive atmospheric re-entry. Marek Ziebart, professor of space geodesy at University College London, explained the craft was built to endure Venus’s extreme environment. He said, “Anything we try to send to Venus has to be armour plated.”
The lander, weighing approximately 495 kilograms and measuring about one metre wide, is expected to resist burning up. Ziebart noted, “Because this thing is basically 500kg, and it’s only about a metre across, then it will probably survive.”
Past Fragments Have Already Reached Earth
Kosmos 482 has already deposited debris on Earth. Some components landed in New Zealand shortly after the initial launch. The lander probe includes a heat shield and a parachute system. However, experts suspect these elements may no longer function effectively after five decades in orbit.
The lander is likely to hit Earth at speeds nearing 150 mph (242 km/h), according to Dutch lecturer Marco Langbroek. He identified the object’s pending descent and noted its durability due to design specifications.
Re-entry Zone Remains Uncertain
The spacecraft may land anywhere between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude. This broad region includes parts of Europe, Africa, Asia, the UK, the Americas, and Australia. Ziebart clarified that “It’s not going to end up de-orbiting at the poles.”
While NASA expects more accurate tracking within a day of re-entry, experts admit uncertainty will persist until the final moments. Ziebart added, “Because this is uncontrolled, that is the important thing here, we can’t do anything to influence where it comes down.”
Radar and telescopes track the descent where coverage is available. The probability of the probe hitting a populated area remains low. Ziebart noted, “It’s more than likely going to hit water.”
Figure 3: Probable zone of re-entry for Kosmos 482
Kosmos 482 Part of Growing Space Junk Crisis
Kosmos 482 represents one of over 1.2 million pieces of space debris larger than one centimetre orbiting Earth. ESA’s April report highlighted an average of three uncontrolled re-entries each day.
Woods pointed out that “We’re seeing a rise in reentries involving larger objects that can partially survive and reach the surface.” He noted the growing risk posed by Cold War-era spacecraft like Kosmos 482.
As space activities increase, experts stress the importance of controlled de-orbit plans. Woods stated, “Some of these larger objects are defunct space race-era objects like KOSMOS 428 DESCENT CRAFT.” He added that such objects follow natural decay after decades in eccentric orbits.
Also Read: American Pope Sparks Tensions with MAGA Movement Over Immigration and Politics
Global Monitoring Emphasises Preparedness
McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, noted the odds of the object hitting a person remain low. He estimated “the usual one-in-several-thousand chance” associated with falling space debris.
Langbroek, Ziebart, and other specialists emphasised the need for improved satellite disposal systems. They argue that better end-of-life planning and investment in debris-removal technologies can reduce future risks.
Authorities continue to monitor Kosmos 482’s descent closely. With current predictions converging, the window for its return narrows. Observers await updates on what could be the final journey of a Soviet relic from the space race era.
