As Canada’s federal election nears its climax, the Liberals under Mark Carney are positioned to secure a majority, according to the latest poll analysis by the Star’s Signal aggregator. Despite narrowing the national gap in voter support, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives appear unable to convert momentum into seats, especially in critical battlegrounds like Ontario.
Conservatives Struggle to Regain Lost Ground
Clifton van der Linden, political science professor at McMaster University and CEO of Vox Pop Labs, the organization behind the Signal, explained that Conservative support has flatlined in Ontario — a province pivotal to winning federal elections.
“They were just not able to regain any of the ground that they had before Justin Trudeau resigned,” said van der Linden, referring to the former Liberal leader’s departure seven weeks ago. Despite early signs of a possible Conservative surge, their national vote share declined and then stabilized without significant recovery during the campaign.
The narrowing race between Liberals and Conservatives, van der Linden noted, is not fueled by gains in Ontario but rather by small increases in New Democratic Party (NDP) support and minor shifts within Quebec’s Bloc Québécois strongholds.
Latest Projections: Liberals Ahead
As of Friday, the Signal’s data showed the Liberals commanding 40.5% of national support, translating to a projected 175 seats — just above the 172 needed for a majority in the 343-member House of Commons. Meanwhile, the Conservatives sat close behind at 39.7%, but were forecasted to capture only 128 seats.
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The NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, was polling at 9.2%, with an anticipated 10 seats, while Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc was at 6.4%, projected to secure 28 seats. The Greens, under co-leaders Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault, trailed at 1.8% and were expected to win two seats, while Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada registered 1.3% support and was not projected to win any seats.
A Closer Look at Ontario’s Crucial Role
Ontario remains the primary battleground, and the data paints a challenging picture for the Conservatives. The Liberals are projected to win 79 of Ontario’s 122 ridings, holding 45.5% of the provincial vote. The Conservatives are forecasted to secure 39 seats with 40.3% support, while the NDP and Greens trail with three and one seats, respectively.
“In Ontario, the Liberals’ lead is pivotal to their overall majority prospects,” said van der Linden. “The Conservative strategy simply hasn’t broken through here.”
The Liberals’ strength in Ontario contrasts sharply with the Conservatives’ hopes to regain their pre-campaign advantage. Notably, the Liberals’ national decline seems more attributable to shifts in NDP and Bloc support rather than a Conservative resurgence.
Concerns for Poilievre in Carleton Riding
One of the more surprising developments involves Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s own riding of Carleton. Although the Signal categorizes it as a “safe” Conservative seat, the Conservative Party is reportedly funneling resources into the Ottawa-area riding amid unexpected concerns.
Carleton saw the highest advance voter turnout nationwide during the Easter weekend, with over 43,000 early ballots cast — a statistic the Liberals are touting as ominous for Poilievre’s campaign.
“Actions sometimes speak louder than words,” van der Linden observed, hinting at the Tories’ last-minute rally in the riding. “Internal polls may be telling a different story than the national models suggest.”
In an internal email, Liberal operatives highlighted the riding’s large number of civil servants, noting their possible discomfort with Poilievre’s proposed cuts to government services.
While polling models typically assign incumbency and star-candidate advantages to sitting MPs like Poilievre, the unexpected intensity in Carleton suggests tighter margins than previously anticipated.
A Changing Political Landscape
This election marks a significant transition for Canada. The dissolution of Parliament in March had the Liberals holding 152 seats, the Conservatives 120, the Bloc 33, the NDP 24, and the Greens two. Population growth expanded the Commons to 343 seats, adding new dimensions to the electoral battle.
Looking back, on January 1 — just before Trudeau’s resignation announcement — the Signal placed the Conservatives at a commanding 46.9% nationally, compared to the Liberals’ 18.6%. The sudden shift underscores how leadership changes and campaign strategies have reshaped the landscape over just a few months.
Conclusion: Liberals Eye Majority, Conservatives on the Defensive
As Canadians prepare to vote, the Liberals seem well-positioned to form the next majority government under Mark Carney’s leadership. In contrast, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are facing tough realities, particularly in Ontario, where hoped-for gains have not materialized.
While the race has tightened nationally, riding-level dynamics and regional strengths appear to favor the Liberals, barring any last-minute surprises.
The final days of campaigning will be crucial — but if current trends hold, Monday night could see Mark Carney celebrating a hard-fought Liberal majority victory.
