The anticipation is electric as Churchill Downs gears up for the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby, and all eyes are on Journalism — the 3-1 morning-line favorite. Trained to near perfection and already a headline grabber, Journalism is expected to lead the pack in Saturday’s “Run for the Roses.” But history warns us not to be too quick to bet the farm on the favorite.
The past six Kentucky Derby favorites have failed to cross the wire first. In fact, long shots have reigned in recent years, with double-digit odds horses like Rich Strike (80-1 in 2022) and Mystik Dan (18-1 in 2024) claiming victory. The unpredictability of the Derby continues to define it, and this year is no different. As Flying Mohawk’s trainer Whit Beckman puts it, “There’s a thousand and one things that can go wrong once the gates open. You don’t necessarily need the best horse to win the race.”
So, who has what it takes to upset Journalism and seize the roses on the first Saturday in May? Here are three standout contenders who may have what it takes:
1. Sovereignty
Morning-line odds: 5-1
Trainer: Bill Mott
Sovereignty enters the Derby as the second choice behind Journalism, and with good reason. The Bill Mott trainee turned heads last October with a dominant win in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs. That win came over other Derby hopefuls Tiztastic and Sandman, giving Sovereignty an edge in familiarity with the track.
Most recently, he surged from the back to finish a close second in the Florida Derby, showcasing a late kick that could be deadly over the Derby’s 1¼ mile distance. Mott, who won the 2019 Derby via disqualification with Country House, sees potential for history to repeat. “I think we have as good of a chance this year as we’ve probably ever had,” Mott said.
While Sovereignty’s closing speed is impressive, there’s always uncertainty about whether a deep closer can sustain momentum over the demanding Derby distance. Mott remains cautiously optimistic: “I hope he continues to be able to sustain his run, but until they do it, they haven’t proven it.”
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2. Burnham Square
Morning-line odds: 8-1
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Burnham Square arrives at Churchill Downs with plenty of momentum, fresh off a stirring last-to-first win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. That performance solidified his status as a legitimate contender, especially with Brian Hernandez Jr. in the irons — the same jockey who guided Mystik Dan to victory in last year’s Derby.
Trainer Ian Wilkes believes Burnham Square is peaking at just the right time. “He’s getting better and better each time,” Wilkes said. “Putting the building blocks together, and just keep building for the Derby.”
His steadily improving Beyer Speed Figures — rising from 58 to 96 over six starts — speak volumes about his upward trajectory. Burnham Square’s powerful late run and proven stamina suggest he’s well-suited for the mile and a quarter distance. If he can avoid traffic and find a clear lane down the stretch, he may very well storm past the favorite.
3. Baeza
Morning-line odds: 12-1
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Baeza was a borderline entry until a late defection opened the gate. Now that he’s in, the late-blooming colt trained by John Shirreffs — who famously upset the Derby in 2005 with 50-1 shot Giacomo — could again spoil the party.
Baeza broke his maiden on February 14 and quickly followed up with a strong showing in the Santa Anita Derby, where he challenged Journalism directly and finished just three-quarters of a length behind him. Despite running wide and showing signs of greenness, Baeza still managed a strong finish — a sign of untapped potential.
“I thought he ran a remarkable race,” Shirreffs said. “Being green and knowing he can do better, it was a really good race.” If Baeza takes a step forward and navigates a cleaner trip on Saturday, he could be a late-breaking surprise.
The Verdict
While Journalism’s resume makes him the clear favorite, the Kentucky Derby rarely goes according to script. From unpredictable pace scenarios to 20-horse chaos and traffic trouble, anything can happen under the Twin Spires.
Sovereignty’s consistency, Burnham Square’s momentum, and Baeza’s raw talent all provide compelling alternatives for bettors seeking value and excitement. One thing is certain: Derby day will be anything but dull.
