Australian shares ended the trading day lower, retreating from yesterday’s record high, as investors eyed upcoming national employment data, which is anticipated to offer vital clues ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) next rates decision. The ASX 200 dropped 0.41%, with 10 out of 11 sectors in the red, reflecting broader global market concerns spurred by semiconductor industry news. Despite the overall downturn, gold miners bucked the trend, with Evolution Mining leading the charge following a favourable production report.
ASX Mining Stocks Drag, Except for Gold
Mining companies were hit hardest, with Rio Tinto seeing losses after its latest production update. Most sectors suffered from global market jitters, particularly following a weak outlook from Dutch-based semiconductor manufacturer ASML. The chipmaker’s lower-than-expected 2025 sales forecast prompted a sharp sell-off in global stocks, particularly in the tech sector. ASML shares fell 16% overnight, marking their biggest one-day drop since 1998. This ripple effect was felt on the ASX, where many companies reliant on global demand for commodities and technology faced losses.
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In contrast, gold mining companies outperformed the rest of the market. Evolution Mining was one of the top gainers of the day after it released a strong production report, showing promising figures that bolstered investor confidence. With global uncertainty persisting, gold—traditionally a safe-haven asset—has maintained its appeal. Financial stocks also held firm, with notable gains for the Bank of Queensland, which reported a strong increase in annual profit.
Key Jobs Data Could Sway RBA’s Rate Decision
All eyes are now on the national employment data set to be released tomorrow. This data will play a crucial role in shaping the economic narrative ahead of the RBA’s November meeting, where the central bank will decide on interest rates. Economists are keenly watching for any signs of softness in the labour market, which could influence the RBA’s approach to tackling inflation. A strong labour market could prompt the RBA to maintain or even raise rates, while any indication of weakness might justify a pause or cut in rates to support economic growth.
The employment figures are expected to be released mid-morning tomorrow, and economists across the board will be analyzing the data to predict its impact on monetary policy. Given that inflation remains a key issue, any sign that the labour market is overheating could reignite concerns about wage-driven inflation, potentially pushing the RBA to take a more hawkish stance.
Rents Set to Fall: A Glimmer of Hope for Inflation
In a separate development, economists from the Commonwealth Bank (Commbank) have predicted a cooling of the rental market. Rents, which have been a significant driver of inflation in recent months, are expected to ease as household dynamics shift and population growth slows. According to Commbank’s economic and market research team, rising household sizes, due to more share houses, and a deceleration in population growth are helping to reduce demand for rental properties. This trend is reflected in data from CoreLogic, which shows advertised rents have plateaued or even fallen in many major cities.
Commbank economists note that while this is a positive development for renters, it could also help temper inflation. Rental inflation has been a significant contributor to Australia’s overall inflation rate, so any easing in this sector could make it easier for the RBA to manage inflation without resorting to aggressive rate hikes. However, the economists caution that there is usually a lag between easing market conditions and a corresponding drop in rents, meaning that the full impact may not be felt for some time.
Global Markets Weighed Down by Semiconductor Forecast
The semiconductor industry was a major focus of investor attention today, following ASML’s warning of weaker-than-expected sales in 2025. As the largest tech firm in Europe, ASML’s forecast sent shockwaves through global markets, leading to a widespread sell-off in semiconductor stocks. The company, which manufactures equipment used in the production of computer chips, cited weakening demand in the semiconductor market as a reason for its downward revision.
This news not only affected tech stocks but also had a broader impact on global markets, including Australia’s ASX. The semiconductor sector is a critical part of the global supply chain, and any slowdown in demand can ripple through other industries, particularly those reliant on technology and manufacturing. With many ASX-listed companies heavily exposed to global commodity and tech demand, the market took a hit following ASML’s announcement.
Australian Fertility Rate Hits Record Low
In another economic development, new data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that Australia’s fertility rate has hit a record low, with just 1.50 babies born per woman in 2023. This marks a significant decline from 1.86 in 1993, with the drop most pronounced among women aged 15 to 19, where fertility rates have fallen by two-thirds. Conversely, the fertility rate for women aged 40 to 44 has almost doubled over the same period.
The ABS attributes this decline to a shift towards later childbearing, with the median age of mothers rising to 31.9 years. This trend is consistent with broader global patterns, as women delay having children in favour of pursuing higher education and career opportunities. The decline in fertility could have long-term implications for Australia’s economy, particularly in terms of labour supply and population growth. However, some economists argue that Australia’s immigration policies could help mitigate the economic impact of a declining birth rate.
Westpac, St George Banking Outage Continues
Meanwhile, Westpac and St George customers faced another frustrating day of outages, with many still unable to access Internet banking services for the third consecutive day. While Westpac announced that services had been restored for most customers, reports indicate that some users are still experiencing difficulties. The Australian Financial Complaints Authority (AFCA) has encouraged affected customers to contact their banks to resolve any issues and has offered to assist with complaints if necessary.
This outage has raised concerns about the resilience of Australia’s banking infrastructure, particularly in an era where digital banking services are critical for everyday transactions. Westpac has yet to fully explain the cause of the outage, leaving many customers frustrated and seeking answers.
Outlook: Jobs Data and Global Uncertainty
As the market looks ahead to tomorrow’s employment data, investors will be hoping for positive signs that could provide a boost to the ASX. However, global economic uncertainty, particularly in the tech sector, continues to weigh heavily on investor sentiment. The RBA’s upcoming rates decision will likely hinge on tomorrow’s data, and with inflation still a concern, all eyes will be on how the central bank navigates the delicate balance between growth and price stability.
