An asteroid heading towards Earth has raised concerns about potential devastation, but how likely is it that the asteroid will strike the planet? NASA continues to monitor the trajectory of the asteroid, known as 2024 YR4, which could collide with Earth in 2032. However, the likelihood of this event remains minimal despite recent calculations suggesting a higher risk.
Detection of Asteroid 2024 YR4
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected in late December 2024. Since its discovery, NASA has been closely monitoring its orbit. This estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters in size, which is significant enough to potentially cause destruction if it were to hit Earth.
- Size of Asteroid 2024 YR4: 40 to 90 meters
- Potential Impact Date: December 22, 2032
- Risk of Collision: More than 97% chance it will not hit Earth
Despite the low probability of a collision, NASA has increased its calculated likelihood of impact. Initially, the chance was estimated at just over 1%. Now, however, the likelihood stands at 2.3%.
Here’s the X post:
While still an extremely low possibility, 2024 YR4’s impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. As we observe it more, the impact probability will become better known. More: https://t.co/VWiASTMBDi pic.twitter.com/Z1mpb4UPaC
— NASA Asteroid Watch (@AsteroidWatch) February 7, 2025
https://x.com/AsteroidWatch/status/1887962600148988215
Growing Risk but Low Probability
In its most recent statement, NASA increased the chance of a collision to 2.3%. Despite the increase, the chance remains quite low, and it is most likely to pass by Earth without making contact. However, the trajectory remains under close observation as new data is collected.
NASA’s spokesperson emphasized:
“Currently, no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above one per cent.”
As observations of the it’s orbit continue, scientists will gain better insight into its likelihood of impact. It is possible that the it’s impact probability could increase as more data is gathered, but it is also possible that it could eventually be ruled out as a hazard.
A Serious-Sized Object with Destructive Potential
Astrophysics Professor Tamara Davis from The University of Queensland has highlighted the seriousness. She explained that if the they were to collide with Earth, it could cause significant damage:
“We are talking 40 to 90 metres is the estimate… and that’s quite sizeable. If it was to hit [Earth], it would have the potential to wipe out something the size of a city, it could do significant damage.”
Despite the concern, Davis reassured that the it’s chance of hitting a populated area remains very low. She explained that Earth is vast, and the probability of a precise hit on a populated region is even smaller.
- Likelihood of Impact on a Population Centre: Low
- Damage Potential: Could potentially wipe out a city
Uncertainty of Exact Timing and Location
At this stage, scientists are unsure of when and where the asteroid might strike, should it collide with Earth. The uncertainty is due to the limited ability to predict the asteroid’s trajectory with high precision.
Davis further clarified:
“We still are uncertain within half a day exactly when it would hit.”
As the asteroid approaches Earth, the chances of refining the impact prediction become more likely. Observations will help determine whether a specific region could be in danger, allowing for potential warnings.
Planetary Defence Measures
NASA is actively monitoring Asteroid 2024 YR4 with the help of ground-based telescopes. In addition, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope is scheduled to observe the asteroid in March 2025 to gain better insights into its size and potential threat.
- Future Observations: James Webb Space Telescope to observe in March 2025
- Current Visibility: Asteroid will become too faint to observe in April until mid-2028
Should an asteroid like 2024 YR4 be detected early enough, NASA could employ planetary defence strategies to avoid a collision. These strategies may involve diverting it’s path slightly to prevent it from hitting Earth.
The Importance of Monitoring Asteroids
NASA’s risk list has previously included several objects that were initially believed to have a chance of impacting Earth but were later removed from the list. This demonstrates the importance of continued observation and data collection in understanding the true risks posed.
- NASA’s Asteroid Risk List: Includes several objects previously thought to be a threat, but later ruled out
The Need for Early Detection and Diversion
The first step in planetary defence is to track asteroids. Astronomers continually scan the sky, using telescopes to spot new objects and track their movement. The ability to detect it early on provides a better chance of diverting it.
Davis pointed out the significance of early detection:
“We can give it a tiny little nudge … and that’ll make it drift far enough away that it will avoid hitting us.”
In 2022, NASA demonstrated this method through its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, which successfully tested the ability to divert an asteroid.
- DART Mission: NASA’s 2022 test to redirect an it’s path
- Diverting Strategy: A small nudge can alter an asteroid’s trajectory
Ongoing Efforts to Understand the Threat
The ongoing observations of 2024 YR4, combined with future assessments, will help scientists determine if it poses a real threat. If the asteroid’s risk continues to rise, authorities will work to refine impact predictions and prepare for possible outcomes. The global community remains alert, knowing the potential consequences of a significant collision with Earth.
Conclusion: Monitoring and Preparedness
Though the chances of hitting Earth in 2032 remain low, NASA’s continuous monitoring is crucial. As the technology advances, so too does humanity’s ability to prevent or mitigate the dangers posed by these space rocks. The potential for collisions will continue to be a subject of scientific scrutiny and planetary defence preparation.
- Ongoing Efforts: Continued observations by NASA and other global agencies
- Importance of Early Detection: Early tracking increases the chances of deflecting potential threats
