Tropical Cyclone Alfred has formed in the Coral Sea, east of Queensland, and is gradually intensifying. Meteorologists are closely tracking its movements, as the system could reach Category Three within days. While Alfred currently remains offshore, uncertainty surrounds its path beyond Thursday, raising concerns for coastal communities.
Figure 1: Currently a Category One, Alfred is expected to intensify to Category Two by Monday and potentially Category Three by Tuesday, reaching severe status. An expert from BOM is explaining the pathway. [X/BOM]
Watch the X post:
Severe Weather Update 24 Feb 2025: Tropical Cyclone Alfred update.
Video current: 11:00am AEST Monday 24 February 2025
For the latest forecasts and warnings go to our website https://t.co/4W35o8i7wJ or the BOM Weather app. pic.twitter.com/ujjJYujpH8
— Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (@BOM_au) February 24, 2025
Cyclone Alfred’s Current Status
- Location: Approximately 495 km east-northeast of the Willis Island and 930 km northeast of Cairns
- Intensity: Category One, with winds near the centre reaching 75 km/h
- Movement: Slowly drifting eastwards at 7 km/h
- Forecast: Expected to strengthen and shift south-east before possibly turning south
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) confirmed on Monday that Alfred continues to gain strength over warm Coral Sea waters. Forecasters predict it could intensify to Category Two by Monday night and reach Category Three by Tuesday afternoon.
Figure 2: Two tropical cyclones, named Alfred and Bianca, developed near Australia on Sunday, with the Coral Sea potentially seeing the season’s first severe cyclone. [Windy.com]
Figure 3: Tropical Cyclone Alfred [Windy.com]
A meteorologist from the BoM stated that Alfred would continue moving eastwards for now. However, later in the week, it could take a more southerly or even south-westerly path, which might bring it closer to Queensland’s central or southern coastline.
Will Cyclone Alfred Hit Queensland?
At present, the system poses no immediate threat to Queensland’s mainland. However, meteorologists warn that its future movement remains uncertain.
BoM’s latest update suggests three possible scenarios:
- Cyclone Alfred continues south-east into open waters, reducing its impact on Queensland.
- Alfred moves south-west, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall to parts of coastal Queensland.
- The cyclone slows down and intensifies, leading to prolonged severe weather conditions near the eastern coastline.
A BoM spokesperson said forecasters are monitoring its track closely, as some models indicate a potential shift towards Queensland over the weekend.
Coastal Impacts and Warnings
Although Cyclone Alfred remains offshore, Queensland’s coastal regions will still feel its effects. BoM has issued strong wind warnings for multiple areas along the east coast.
Key Impacts Expected This Week:
- Strong winds: Gusts up to 100 km/h could impact offshore waters.
- Heavy seas: Dangerous surf conditions expected from Cooktown to K’gari.
- Increased showers: Light to moderate rainfall across Brisbane, the Sunshine Coast, and Wide Bay regions.
- Possible flooding: If Alfred moves closer to the coast, heavy rain could lead to flash flooding in some areas.
A meteorologist noted that Queenslanders should stay updated on Alfred’s path, as a sudden change in direction could bring stronger impacts to populated areas.
Brisbane and Queensland’s Weather Outlook
Despite the offshore cyclone, Brisbane is expected to have mostly sunny weather this week, with temperatures around 31°C. Coastal showers may develop, particularly in areas facing the Coral Sea.
For residents in north Queensland, the state is still recovering from weeks of heavy rain and flooding caused by a previous tropical low. Emergency responders remain on high alert as Cyclone Alfred intensifies.
Second Cyclone Brewing Near Western Australia
Meanwhile, another tropical low off the Western Australian coast has developed into Tropical Cyclone Bianca. The system remains far offshore but is being monitored closely.
BoM has reassured Australians that Cyclone Bianca is not expected to make landfall. A spokesperson stated that the system is tracking westward, moving away from the mainland.
What Happens Next?
BoM expects to have a clearer forecast on Cyclone Alfred’s trajectory by midweek. Queenslanders should continue to follow cyclone watch updates and be prepared for any changes in weather conditions.
Key Takeaways:
✔ Cyclone Alfred remains offshore but is strengthening
✔ Coastal impacts will include strong winds, large waves, and showers
✔ Uncertainty remains about Alfred’s movement beyond Thursday
✔ A second cyclone, Bianca, has formed near WA but poses no threat
Authorities urge residents along the east coast to monitor updates and prepare for potential weather changes. As Cyclone Alfred continues to intensify, its movement will determine whether Queensland faces a direct impact or just coastal effects.
