Local Futures Lift Despite Flat Start
The S&P/ASX 200 futures rose 18 points or 0.21% on Wednesday morning. The lift followed a subdued start to the financial year, with the ASX 200 finishing flat on Tuesday despite gaining 0.39% in the opening hour. Markets opened cautiously, digesting overnight movements and local company developments.
ASX 200 Chart as of 12:05 pm AEST
US Markets Show Divergence
Overnight, Wall Street presented a mixed picture. The S&P 500 fell 0.11% while the Nasdaq dropped 0.82%. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 surged 0.94% and the Dow Jones gained 0.91%. The equal-weight S&P 500 advanced 1.17%, outperforming the benchmark by 128 basis points. The Mag-7 dragged the broader indices down, with Tesla falling 5.3%, Broadcom 3.9%, Nvidia 2.9% and Meta 2.5%.
Investors rotated out of overbought tech names and moved into defensives, small caps and value sectors. The S&P 500 is now trading at its most overbought level since July 2024.
Senate Passes Major US Spending Bill
The US Senate passed Trump’s proposed ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ overnight. Vice President Vance broke the 50-50 deadlock with his vote. Market focus now shifts to trade negotiations, with the White House reportedly seeking phased deals to meet the 9 July deadline, as per Financial Times reporting.
US Manufacturing Remains in Contraction
The ISM Manufacturing Index for June printed at 49.0, just below consensus of 49.1. This marked the fourth straight month of contraction. The new orders index declined for the fifth consecutive month and by the most in three months. The order backlog index also fell to 44.3, marking 33 straight months of contraction.
Meanwhile, the prices paid index stayed in expansion territory, reaching 68.7, slightly down from 69.4 in May. Respondents to the survey noted ongoing uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and confusion in markets.
Job Openings Hit Seven-Month High
US May JOLTS data revealed a sharp increase in job openings. The figure rose by 374,000 to 7.77 million, the highest since November 2024. Accommodation and food services contributed 314,000 openings, while finance and insurance added 91,000. The result surpassed the 7.3 million market consensus and signalled strength in the labour market despite broader economic uncertainties.
Powell Repeats Fed’s Data-Driven Stance
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed the ECB’s central bank forum in Sintra. He repeated prior views, stating, “US economy is in a good position; inflation behaving as expected, absent tariffs.” Powell reaffirmed that current policy is “modestly restrictive.” He added, “No meeting, including July, is off the table for a rate cut but decisions depend on evolving data.”
Powell refrained from commenting on political criticism or his potential role beyond his current term ending May 2026.
Alcoa Gains on Saudi JV Sale
Alcoa announced it had completed the sale of its 25.1% stake in the Ma’aden Joint Venture. The stake was sold to the Saudi Arabian Mining Company, and Alcoa expects to record a $780 million gain in the third quarter. The company’s ownership in Ma’aden now stands at around 2%. Alcoa shares rose 2.3%, closing at a three-month high.
Helia Shares Dive on ING Contract Risk
Helia shares fell 23% in early trade after confirming ING may end its lenders mortgage insurance partnership. ING has entered negotiations with a rival LMI provider, exercising a clause that allows termination with three months’ notice. The contract, valid until 30 June 2026, made up around 17% of Helia’s gross written premium in 2024.
PEXA CFO to Depart in July
PEXA confirmed that CFO Scott Butterworth will leave the company on 31 July 2025. The company has begun a formal search for a replacement. Deputy CFO Liz Warrell will serve as acting CFO until the appointment is finalised. Butterworth currently holds no shares in PEXA.
Meeka Begins Gold Production at Murchison
Meeka confirmed its first gold pour at the Murchison Project in Western Australia. The transition from developer to producer occurred on schedule, 12 months after breaking ground. Meeka is targeting 80,000 ounces of annual production. Shares have surged 340% over the last year. The company recently raised $60 million on 19 June at 15 cents per share to support growth.
James Hardie Completes AZEK Acquisition
James Hardie finalised the $8.4 billion acquisition of AZEK, including $26.45 per share in cash and James Hardie shares. Its NYSE-listed shares gained 4.4%, hitting a three-month high. Macquarie previously flagged strategic benefits in AZEK’s growth profile and market penetration. However, the firm raised concerns about valuation, noting the 6x price-to-book ratio and high intangible asset base could affect long-term returns.
Spartan Resources Sees Block Trade
A 110.3 million share block trade in Spartan Resources crossed at $1.92, representing 8.6% of the company. The size indicates a likely sale by Tembo Capital or Ramelius Resources, both major shareholders. Tembo held an identical stake, while Ramelius held 19.9%.
Domino’s Drops as CEO Announces Exit
Domino’s shares dropped 18% following CEO Mark Van Dyck’s resignation, effective December 2025. Van Dyck was appointed in November 2024. RBC Capital Markets noted the ongoing executive reshuffling across regions and roles, including recent resignations of the ANZ CEO and CFO.
UBS Predicts July Rate Cut
UBS revised its forecast, now expecting a 25 basis point rate cut from the RBA in July 2025. The May meeting saw a 25bps cut to 3.85%, with the central bank now viewing policy as “somewhat less restrictive.” The market currently prices in a near full July cut, with 44bps of easing expected by August.
Trump Sticks to Tariff Deadline
President Trump reaffirmed his 9 July deadline for raising tariffs, warning of trade action against countries including Japan. He criticised Japan’s resistance to US rice exports and auto trade imbalances. Trump suggested tariffs of 30% or 35% on Japanese goods, citing a $68.5 billion trade deficit. US equities dipped, and the Cboe VIX rose to 16.8 following his remarks.