ASX Today: Index Extends Weekly Losses
The ASX 200 continued its downward trend today, reflecting ongoing investor caution amid heightened geopolitical tension and energy market volatility. As of 3:00 pm AEST on June 23, the index dropped 43.00 points, or 0.51%, to 8,462.50. This latest fall pushed it below its 20-day moving average, signalling broader weakness in the local market.
So far, the index has declined by 0.99% over the past five sessions. It now sits 2.04% below its 52-week high. The worst-performing stocks on the ASX today included DIGICO Infrastructure REIT and Bellevue Gold Limited, down 5.44% and 5.32%, respectively.
ASX 200 Update As of 3 pm AEST [Market Index]
The broader sector breakdown, reflected in today’s market heatmap, shows widespread weakness. Industrials led the declines, falling 1.18%, followed by Materials and Information Technology, which dropped 1.04% and 0.87%, respectively. Only a few sectors, such as Financials (+0.13%), Energy (+0.10%), and Utilities (+0.05%), posted marginal gains.
ASX 200 Sector Performance Heatmap [ASX]
Global Market Uncertainty Grows
Looking abroad, Wall Street futures suggest a weak start for US markets. At 3:00 pm AEST, S&P 500 futures were down 0.3%, Dow futures declined by the same margin, and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.4%.
This caution stems from escalating tension in the Middle East. Over the weekend, US forces reportedly struck three Iranian nuclear sites. While these actions occurred after markets closed on Friday, the ramifications will likely shape investor sentiment this week.
Earlier, US President Donald Trump added to the uncertainty with his ambiguous stance on direct US involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict. “I may do it. I may not do it,” he said—prompting speculation and market hesitancy.
Trump described the strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities as “very successful,” portraying it as a demonstration of America’s military strength. [Credit: AFP]
Cherry Lane Investments partner Rick Meckler noted, “Investors are a little bit nervous about buying stocks right in front of this situation and, more specifically, right in front of this weekend.”
Oil Prices and the Strait of Hormuz
Amid the rising tension, oil prices remain a central concern. Brent crude fell 2.3% on Friday, closing just above US$77 per barrel. However, it still posted a 3.6% weekly gain. Analysts expect another spike as markets digest the latest developments.
Iran’s parliament has reportedly voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for global oil exports. If enacted, this move could disrupt up to 20 million barrels of oil and a quarter of the world’s liquefied natural gas that pass through the strait daily.
Independent economist Saul Eslake warned of the potential impact: “If Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz or indeed make credible threats to block it, it could act as a deterrent if not a formidable obstacle to getting a significant proportion of the world’s oil from where it’s produced to where it’s needed.”
This threat looms large for Australia, which imports around 90% of its refined fuel products. Most of this supply comes from refineries in Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Brunei—all of which rely heavily on Middle Eastern crude.
Vessels from the US Fifth Fleet and other Western naval forces constantly patrol the area. [Credit: US 5th Fleet via Reuters]
Fuel Prices Likely to Rise
NRMA spokesperson Peter Khoury said Australians should brace for higher petrol prices. “Every time the Middle East sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold,” he said. Since the conflict began, terminal gate prices in Australia have already risen by around 8 cents per litre.
Khoury added, “What it means for the capital cities that are currently experiencing a fall in petrol prices is that they won’t likely fall as far or for as long as we thought they would.”
Economist Saul Eslake said a complete blockade could drive prices above $2.30 per litre. “If the trading price went to US$100 a barrel … regular petrol could go well to $2.30–$2.50 a litre,” he said.
Australasian Convenience and Petroleum Marketers Association CEO Mark McKenzie agreed but highlighted that this may not accurately reflect the dramatic price jumps seen during the Russia-Ukraine war.
“The current trading price this morning, US$78 a barrel, is still below the oil price this time last year … well below the price when the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in early March 2022 at US$128 barrel,” McKenzie said.
He added, “The clear message here is that oil trading markets are learning to cope with the rising level of geopolitical uncertainty, which is increasing price volatility.”
What Happens Next for the ASX 200?
While the ASX today showed signs of recovery in the late morning, climbing from an earlier low of 8,421.1 at 11:47 am, the index failed to sustain momentum into the afternoon.
With Wall Street poised for soft open and geopolitical risks mounting, the ASX 200 may continue to face selling pressure in the days ahead. Investors are closely monitoring Iran’s next move and the US response, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz blockade becomes official.
The looming July 9 tariff deadline and quarterly earnings warnings will add further volatility to global markets, which may spill over to Australia. For now, it seems the ASX will tread cautiously amid a storm of uncertainty—both politically and economically.
