Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) could keep paying a steady income to shareholders through to 2028. A new Rio Tinto dividend forecast from CMC Invest points to payouts close to current levels. The sources reported the figures on 31 Oct 2026.
Income investors want one answer. Can mining profits keep funding the payout? The Rio Tinto dividend yield is projected at 4.4% excluding franking credits and 6.3% including them. The result matters across the resources sector.
Rio Tinto Dividend Forecast Rests on a Solid FY26
Third Quarter Output Holds Steady
Rio Tinto called its third quarter a strong operational performance. Copper production was flat year on year at 205 thousand metric tons (kt). Iron ore output rose 2% to 89.7 million metric tons (mt).
Management said it is on track for a US$1.8 billion annualised productivity benefit run-rate by the end of 2026. The Company expects to feel the full effect during FY27.
| Commodity | Q3 FY26 production | Year-on-year change |
| Copper | 205 kt | Flat |
| Iron ore | 89.7 mt | Up 2% |
| Bauxite | 15.7 mt | Down 4% |
| Aluminium | 0.8 mt | Down 2% |
| Lithium carbonate | 13 kt | Up 4% |
Half-Year Growth Behind the Dividend Lift
Rio Tinto posted a particularly strong FY26 half-year result. Revenue rose 15%, and free cash flow increased 75%. That growth allowed the Company to lift its half-year dividend by 43%. The lift supports the Rio Tinto dividend forecast for the full year.
| Measure | FY26 half-year growth |
| Revenue | 15% |
| Underlying operating profit (EBITDA) | 28% |
| Underlying earnings | 43% |
| Free cash flow | 75% |
| Half-year dividend | 43% |
CMC Invest estimates an annual dividend of A$6.676 per share for FY26. The Rio Tinto dividend yield on that figure is 4.4% excluding franking credits and 6.3% including them.
Rio Tinto Dividend Yield Outlook for FY27
Rio Tinto’s FY27 performance could depend on commodity prices and two production ramp-ups. These are copper at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia and iron ore at Simandou in Africa.
Analysts estimate earnings could climb a little in FY27. That could fund a 2% increase in the annual dividend to A$6.809 per share.
Figure 1: Rio Tinto signage on a corporate office building [Courtesy: Getty Images]
Rio Tinto Dividend 2028 Projection Eases Slightly
Rio Tinto could deliver a similar result in FY28, according to CMC Invest, though slightly lower. The projection points to an annual dividend of A$6.632 per share. The Rio Tinto dividend 2028 projection carries the same yield of 4.4% excluding franking credits and 6.3% including them.
| Financial year | Dividend per share | Yield excluding franking | Yield including franking |
| FY26 | A$6.676 | 4.4% | 6.3% |
| FY27 | A$6.809 | Not stated | Not stated |
| FY28 | A$6.632 | 4.4% | 6.3% |
Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) Share Price and Broker Views
- Average broker price target: A$172.44 per share
- Brokers surveyed: 10
- Possible rise: more than 14% over the next year, at the time of writing
- Analyst view: shares appear undervalued
- Rio Tinto dividend yield for FY28: 4.4% excluding franking credits and 6.3% including franking credits
- Rio Tinto dividend 2028 projection: A$6.632 per share
Industry Outlook
Rio Tinto’s mix of copper, iron ore, lithium and aluminium gives it exposure to several demand cycles. Production ramp-ups at Oyu Tolgoi and Simandou are key factors to watch across the resources sector. The Company says its major Projects remain on schedule and budget, supporting its growth profile to 2030.
Future Direction and Impact on Rio Tinto Shareholder Income
The Rio Tinto dividend 2028 outlook depends on whether mining profits keep pace with the projections. The Rio Tinto dividend forecast has earnings edging up in FY27, then easing slightly in FY28. Commodity prices remain the main swing factor.
Rio Tinto also offers a generous payout ratio and a relatively low price/earnings (P/E) ratio, as noted by the sources, together with the productivity benefit and two ramp-ups, which support the income case. Investors should still track commodity prices and each quarterly update.
Colitco will keep following Rio Tinto and share the latest dividend developments for income-focused readers.
ALSO READ: Why SGQ Looks Undervalued After Lynas’ A$968m Meteoric Deal
FAQ
Q1. What does the Rio Tinto dividend forecast show?
Ans. CMC Invest estimates A$6.676 per share for FY26, A$6.809 for FY27 and A$6.632 for FY28.
Q2. What is the Rio Tinto dividend yield?
Ans. The projected yield is 4.4% excluding franking credits and 6.3% including them.
Q3. What is the Rio Tinto dividend 2028 projection?
Ans. Analysts see A$6.632 per share, slightly below the FY27 estimate.
Q4. What could affect future payouts?
Ans. Commodity prices and the production ramp-ups at Oyu Tolgoi and Simandou.
Disclaimer
This article is meant only for informational purposes. If you are an investor who is watching Rio Tinto closely, all the data published in the content is sourced from external sources. Kindly verify all the information related to the share price and market data. Any investment should be made at the investor’s own risk. Colitco does not hold any position in the above-mentioned company.
Luke Carlino is a seasoned Copywriter, Content Strategist, and Social Media Manager specialising in Mining, Finance, and Business journalism. With more than a decade of industry experience, he brings rigorous editorial standards and commercial acuity to every project.
