Independent candidate Nicolette Boele has officially claimed victory in the ultra-marginal Sydney electorate of Bradfield, following a dramatic recount that confirmed she edged out Liberal opponent Gisele Kapterian by just 26 votes.
After more than a month of fluctuating leads, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) on Wednesday announced the final result, making Bradfield the last seat to be declared in the 2025 federal election.
The announcement concludes one of the tightest contests in Australian electoral history, with Bradfield—a historically blue-ribbon Liberal seat—now falling into independent hands for the first time since its creation in 1949.
Nicolette Boele and Gisele Kapterian [Facebook/NSW Liberal]
Final Margin Decided by Just 26 Votes
The Bradfield election outcome remained uncertain for weeks. On 12 May, the ABC’s chief election analyst, Antony Green, initially called the seat for Kapterian, who at that time was leading by approximately 200 votes with 1,000 still to be counted.
However, preference flows and rechecking of ballots gradually swung the margin. By 19 May, Nicolette Boele had overtaken her opponent and was declared the provisional winner, ahead by 40 votes.
In a dramatic twist, Kapterian then regained the lead by eight votes during the final stretch of the initial count. Given the razor-thin margin, the AEC triggered an automatic recount under its policy for contests decided by fewer than 100 votes.
The full recount involved a new count of all first preferences, a complete reassessment of informal ballots, a recount of the two-candidate preferred results, and a full redistribution of preferences. The process was closely monitored by scrutineers appointed by both candidates to ensure transparency.
A few days ago, she posted about the immense support on her side:
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At the conclusion of the recount, the AEC confirmed Nicolette Boele had secured 50.01% of the vote, narrowly ahead of Kapterian’s 49.99%.
“As evidenced in previous elections, it is very common in tight contests and recounts for further rulings to be made on ballot paper formality,” the AEC said in a statement.
Liberal Party Considers Legal Challenge
Despite the recount’s conclusion, the Liberal Party has not ruled out further action. It is currently weighing whether to challenge the Bradfield result in the Court of Disputed Returns, a legal pathway available to any candidate or elector within 40 days of the writs being returned.
Should a challenge proceed, it will likely be heard by the High Court in its capacity as the federal electoral court. Until then, Boele’s win remains official, but not necessarily final.
Boele’s Path to Bradfield Victory
This was Nicolette Boele’s second tilt at Bradfield, after she narrowly lost to Liberal frontbencher Paul Fletcher in 2022 during the so-called “teal wave” of Climate 200-backed independents. Fletcher, who held Bradfield for over a decade, retired before the 2025 election, a move that many inside the Liberal Party viewed as leaving the seat vulnerable.
Nicolette Boele [Instagram]
Despite heavy campaigning and resources poured into defending Bradfield, the Liberals were unable to hold the seat. Kapterian had been selected as the candidate in January, beating high-profile conservative Warren Mundine, and was later appointed to an assistant role in the communications portfolio by Opposition Leader Sussan Ley—pending the election result.
Kapterian’s appointment is now expected to be revoked, with another Liberal likely to take her place on the frontbench.
What This Means for Federal Politics
With Bradfield now officially declared, the final make-up of the House of Representatives stands at 94 seats for Labor, 43 for the Coalition, and 13 crossbenchers, including the newly elected Nicolette Boele.
Boele’s win further strengthens the presence of independents in Sydney’s north, joining neighbouring electorates such as Warringah and Mackellar, held by fellow teal independents Zali Steggall and Sophie Scamps, respectively.
Like other teals, Boele was backed by Simon Holmes à Court’s Climate 200 group, which supported independent campaigns focused on climate action, integrity, and gender equity.
The Bradfield election now stands as a clear example of the ongoing transformation in traditionally Liberal strongholds, particularly on the North Shore, where voters are increasingly favouring centrist independents.
Community and Geographic Significance
The electorate of Bradfield encompasses a range of affluent Sydney suburbs including St Leonards, Killara, and Wahroonga. Long considered a Liberal stronghold, the seat’s flip to independent hands signals a broader political shift in suburban Australia.
Political commentators have noted that dissatisfaction with major party politics, growing concern over climate policy, and strong local campaigning have driven voters toward candidates like Nicolette Boele, who emphasise transparency and action over party politics.
What Happens Next?
While Boele has been declared the winner, the Liberal Party’s potential legal challenge could prolong uncertainty. If the Court of Disputed Returns does not overturn the outcome, Boele will take her seat on the crossbench as part of the 47th Parliament.
For now, the electorate of Bradfield has spoken — albeit by the slimmest of margins — in what will be remembered as one of the most dramatic finishes in Australian federal election history.
