BHP Group Limited (ASX: BHP) fronted its FY26 results in August 2026 with plenty to unpack for shareholders. Between the copper-driven rally, a record earnings result, and a wide split in broker opinion, there was a lot to work through.
Figure 1: BHP Group company office [Courtesy: BHP Group Limited]
This BHP shares turning point August 2026 story is important for anyone with, or wanting to get, a position in the mining sector. The stock has run hard, and the question now is whether that run still has fuel left, or whether brokers are quietly directing shareholders to the exit.
What Triggered the Rally in August 2026
Copper sentiment turned more bullish in early August, and BHP shares moved with it almost straight away. The real acceleration came after the Company posted record FY26 earnings on 18 Aug 2026.
It was a strong result by most measures. BHP reported strong operational performance across all its key divisions with underlying EBITDA 27 per cent higher than the same time last year.
Investors did not wait around. Buying picked up within days, pushing BHP well ahead of the broader market for the month.
| Metric | BHP Group Limited | S&P/ASX 200 Index |
|---|---|---|
| 1-month change | +12% | +3% |
| 12-month change | +58% | +2% |
| Key catalyst | FY26 results, 27% EBITDA growth | Broader market conditions |
Where This BHP Shares Turning Point Debate Stands Right Now
Broker opinion on BHP shares is split down the middle right now, and that split is the whole story. Some analysts think fair value is already priced in. Others still see room to run.
- Market Index data shows most brokers currently rate BHP a hold
- TradingView data lands in a similar place, with hold ratings outnumbering buy and sell calls combined
- Both platforms’ average price targets sit below where BHP is trading today
| Data Source | Buy/Strong Buy | Hold | Sell/Strong Sell | Average Target Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Index | Minority | Majority | Minority | A$61.78 |
| TradingView (24 analysts) | 6 | 14 | 4 | A$62.68 |
That gap between price and target is exactly why some are calling this a BHP smart money exit Australia stocks moment rather than a fresh buying window.
Individual Broker Views Vary Widely
The spread between the highest and lowest price targets is unusually wide for a stock BHP’s size. Bears see meaningful downside. Bulls see the rally continuing well into next year.
| Broker | Rating | 12-Month Target |
|---|---|---|
| Morgans | Sell (downgraded) | A$55.30 |
| Red Leaf Securities | Hold | Not specified |
| Morgan Stanley | Buy (renewed) | A$67.50 |
Some forecasts have BHP falling around 35 per cent to A$35.14 over the next year. Others expect a possible 36 per cent climb to A$91.71, which shows just how far apart the bull and bear cases have drifted since the FY26 result landed.
Morgans downgraded BHP to sell after the results, arguing the price already reflects most of the good news. Red Leaf Securities’ John Athanasiou sits closer to the middle. He rates BHP a hold, noting the quality of its asset base and balance sheet gives existing shareholders little reason to sell, even if fresh entries look less compelling after such a strong run.
Morgan Stanley takes the opposite view entirely. The broker renewed its buy rating and lifted its target to A$67.50, well above where most of its peers landed.
Mining Sector Outlook
Firmer copper pricing sentiment has lifted the mining sector broadly through August 2026, not just BHP. Stronger copper demand expectations helped drive this rally before the FY26 result even came out.
BHP’s scale means its moves tend to set the tone for the sector. Any change in commodity pricing from here could shift sentiment quickly, in either direction.
Figure 2: BHP Group employees reviewing operational data at a mine site [Courtesy: BHP Group Limited]
BHP Share Price (ASX: BHP)
- Last traded price: A$67.080
- Market capitalisation: A$337.58 billion
- 52-week range: A$39.300 to A$68.770
- Average broker target (Market Index): A$61.78
- Average broker target (TradingView): A$62.68
Figure 3: BHP share price chart, 12-month [Courtesy: ASX]
Future Direction and Impact on Investor Decision-Making
Whether this counts as a smart BHP shares late August entry Australia investors should take, or a signal to lock in gains, really depends on timeframe. Long-term holders have less reason to sell, given BHP’s diversified operations and balance sheet strength.
Anyone considering a new position might do well to watch broker targets over the next few weeks rather than chase the current price. Copper will likely be the deciding factor either way. Sustained strength there could keep the rally going, while a pullback would hand the more cautious brokers the last word.
Stay with Colitco for ongoing coverage of BHP shares and the broader mining sector as this story develops.
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FAQ
Q1. Why are BHP shares rallying in August 2026?
Ans. The move was on the back of bullishness on copper and a record FY26 result, including 27 per cent growth in EBITDA.
Q2. Are brokers bullish or bearish on BHP shares right now?
Ans. Most have a neutral rating, with average targets indicating some downside from here.
Q3. What is the broker price target range for BHP shares?
Ans. Forecasts span from A$35.14 on the bearish side to A$91.71 on the bullish side.
Q4. Is this a good time for a BHP shares late August entry?
Ans. Opinion is genuinely split, with some brokers seeing value already priced in and others still bullish.
Disclaimer
This article is meant only for informational purposes. If you are an investor who is watching BHP Group closely, all the data published in the content is sourced from ASX announcements and external sources. Kindly verify all the information related to the share price and market data. Any investment should be made at the investor’s own risk. Colitco does not hold any position in the above-mentioned company.
Luke Carlino is a seasoned Copywriter, Content Strategist, and Social Media Manager specialising in Mining, Finance, and Business journalism. With more than a decade of industry experience, he brings rigorous editorial standards and commercial acuity to every project.
