A tropical low off Queensland’s coast may intensify into a cyclone by Sunday, bringing strong winds and rough seas. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has issued warnings for most of the state’s coastline as the system develops.
Cyclone Formation Likely
Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Jonathan How confirmed that the tropical low is about 600 kilometres northeast of Cairns.
“It is well off the Queensland coast at the moment, but it is gradually developing and strengthening,” he said.
The system has a high chance of becoming a cyclone, with meteorologists closely monitoring its movements.
Figure 1: “There are actually two tropical lows to the north, another one over Western Australia,” said Mr. How [Credit: ABC News and Beureau of Meterology]
Possible Southward Movement
Mr How stated that the system’s exact movement was uncertain, but it could shift south from mid-next week.
- Some computer models suggested it might drift as far south as the Wide Bay area while staying offshore.
- Various scenarios remained possible, including:
- The system staying offshore.
- Moving towards New Caledonia.
- Heading further south to K’gari and southeast Queensland.
- In the short term, there were no immediate threats to Queensland or offshore islands.
- The Bureau of Meteorology would provide a clearer forecast next week to determine if the system would move towards Queensland’s coast.
Two Tropical Lows Competing for Cyclone Status
The tropical low near Queensland is one of two systems forming near Australia. The second low is off Western Australia’s coast, and both could develop into cyclones.
“There are actually two tropical lows to the north, another one over Western Australia which could get there first, so we could see two cyclones … so it could be one of those two names,” Mr How said.
The first to reach cyclone status will be named either Alfred or Bianca.
Strong Wind Warnings in Place
The developing system has already triggered strong wind warnings along Queensland’s coastline, with BOM issuing alerts from Cooktown to Capricornia. Mr How explained that the low’s southern flank was generating stronger south-easterly winds, causing indirect impacts along the coast.
He warned that winds could intensify from mid-next week, increasing sea and swell levels along the coast.
Key Takeaways:
- A tropical low near Queensland has a high chance of becoming a cyclone.
- The system is about 600km northeast of Cairns.
- Possible paths include moving south, staying offshore, or heading towards New Caledonia.
- A second tropical low near WA could also become a cyclone.
- Strong wind warnings are in place along Queensland’s east coast.
Heavy Rain Expected in Flood-Affected Areas
Cairns and Mackay, two areas in Queensland that have experienced flooding, could be affected by heavy rains even if the system does not reach land. BOM expects increased rainfall later next week.
Figure 2: Cairns and Mackay, two areas in Queensland that have experienced flooding, could be affected by heavy rains [Sky News]
Extreme Fire Danger in South Australia and Victoria
While Queensland prepares for tropical cyclones, South Australia and Victoria are facing extreme fire conditions. BOM has forecasted high temperatures and dry winds across both states.
Saturday’s Forecasted Maximum Temperatures:
- Adelaide: 39°C
- Melbourne: 36°C
- Canberra: 30°C
- Hobart: 29°C
- Sydney: 27°C, with possible showers
- Inland NSW: 39-40°C
- South Australia: Low 40s in some areas
Senior meteorologist Angus Hines warned that heat and wind would increase fire risks.
“Existing bushfires, as well as any new ignitions that begin today, can spread quickly and behave erratically, making them difficult to contain,” Hines said.
Figure 3: A Total Fire Ban is in effect across Victoria’s Mallee, Wimmera, South West, North Central, and Central districts (including Melbourne and Geelong) on Saturday, 22 February 2025. No fires are permitted in open areas from 12:01 AM to 11:59 PM on the same day. [CFA]
Bushfires Burning in Multiple States
Firefighters are battling several bushfires across South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania. More than 30 emergency units are fighting a fire in Willomavin, north of Melbourne.
“Those residents need to shelter indoors now,” a spokesperson at the State Control Centre told AAP.
In Tasmania, bushfires in the north-west have led to the closure of the Overland hiking route. Authorities have declared a total fire ban for Sunday due to worsening conditions.
State Fire Commander Matt Lowe urged residents in high-risk areas to prepare.
“At this stage the Canning Peak bushfire remains our main concern. Water-bombing activities are continuing today on the fire, and the combined area burnt is more than 94,500ha,” Lowe said.
He confirmed that 150 firefighters, eight bulldozers, and 14 aircraft were working to contain the fires.
Heatwave Relief Coming for Southern States
The heatwave will ease in South Australia late Saturday before cooling Victoria and Tasmania on Sunday. However, New South Wales and the ACT will continue to experience high temperatures into early next week.
Hines stated that by lunchtime on Sunday, milder weather would settle in across the southern states, but NSW and ACT would continue to experience above-average temperatures until early next week.
Uncertainty Over Cyclone Path
The tropical low near Queensland remains unpredictable, with the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) expecting it to linger in the Coral Sea for several days.
- If the system develops into a cyclone, it could bring gusty winds, increased swell, and heavy rain along Queensland’s coast.
- Later in the week, it may shift south-east, moving away from Australia and weakening.
- However, meteorologists have not ruled out the possibility of it turning back towards Queensland.
“But there is definitely still a chance that late in the week it could veer towards Queensland, bringing stronger weather impacts to parts of the Queensland coast,” Hines said.
Meanwhile, the second tropical low, located north of Western Australia, is moving west. Hines stated that this system has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from Monday onwards.
- If it forms, it will likely remain over the Indian Ocean.
- It is not expected to pose any threat to mainland Australia or offshore islands.
“This system has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone on Sunday night or early next week,” Hines said.
Queenslanders Urged to Stay Alert
Meteorologists warn that Queensland’s weather forecast could change rapidly. Residents should monitor BOM’s updates and prepare for potential impacts.
“This one is quite interesting just because it drifts quite far south,” How said.
“It really is a good reminder for those to keep across the forecast.”
As tropical cyclones threaten the coast, and extreme fire danger grips southern states, Australia faces a challenging week of severe weather.
