Firmus IPO: Who Is Really Buying A$43.7bn of AI?

Half the book goes to people who already own the company

Existing shareholders are set to take about half the shares on offer. That lets Nvidia and Blackstone lift their stakes without being diluted.

Quick maths from this desk. Half of A$7.1bn is roughly A$3.5bn, which is about 8 per cent of a A$43.7bn company.

So the “demand beat the deal size” headlines hide a detail. A big slice of that demand is already inside the tent, and the outside money that sets a price from scratch is a much smaller pool.

A small pool can help on day one. Few shares, keen buyers, price goes up. It flips just as fast when the first big seller turns up.

The price came in under the A$50bn figure local media had floated. Two months earlier, a funding round valued the company at A$15bn.

Former stockbroker Marcus Padley puts fair value between A$32bn and A$45bn, so the IPO price sits near the top of that range.

Nvidia sits on every side of the table

Nvidia owns a slice of Firmus. It also supplies the chips. Under the Batam deal, it takes a share of the cloud revenue Firmus earns from them too.

Investor, supplier and revenue partner. That is three hats on one head.

None of it is improper. For an outsider, though, it blurs demand that turned up on its own and demand that was lined up in advance. The prospectus should show which is which.

Customers are few. Meta already runs Nvidia systems at the Melbourne facility. OpenAI signed on September 8 for capacity at two Malaysian sites, which pushed contracted power past 900 megawatts.

Plato Investment Management’s David Allen says Firmus has “a huge amount riding on very few customers.”

The Firmus ASX listing needs profit that does not exist yet

Firmus loses money today. Forecasts given to investors show about US$5bn in earnings before interest and tax by 2028. That figure needs most of the pipeline built and filled.

Then the debt. Up to US$30bn is owed to lenders, which is roughly A$43bn. Note the currency. It is US$30bn, not A$30bn.

Firmus’s debt is close to the size of its equity value at the IPO price.

On this desk’s maths, that is about 12 times the 2028 target. Morningstar puts the debt alone at six times it.

Lenders also rank ahead of shareholders. Airlie’s Ray David says it is unclear how the debt holders will be repaid.

Now check what is physically running. Infratil, a CDC shareholder, told the ASX that CDC’s Melbourne site was sized at about 40MW for the first stage of the Nvidia partnership, with delivery due from April 2026. Contracted capacity sits above 900MW. Contracted is not built.

Batam is the big one. It is a 360MW campus with access to up to 170,000 Nvidia accelerators across 2027 and 2028.

Debt this size is touchy about borrowing costs, so the RBA matters too. Our Australia interest rate forecast for 2026 covers that path.

Index funds could decide the first week

At this size, an S&P/ASX 200 spot is anticipated, which will force Australian fund managers to make an active call.

Managers are split. Katana’s Romano Sala Tenna struggles with the arithmetic, yet allowed that Firmus could work as a trade if passive money piles in.

Blackwattle’s Joseph Koh is staying out. He prefers Goodman Group, which has a better record of delivering data centres on time. “There are so many unknowns,” he said of Firmus.

Plato said before pricing that it would likely short the stock at the mooted A$50bn-plus levels. The final price came in lower. Whether that changes Plato’s call is anyone’s guess.

This desk’s read: the first week is about flows, not data centres. After that, the share price lives on delivery at Batam and across the Tasmanian sites.

Smaller ASX names ride the same theme, such as SKS Technologies’ data centre contract and Blockmate Ventures’ Wyoming AI data centre plan. None come close to this size.

The prospectus is due October 12. The numbers worth hunting for are the customer contracts, the debt schedule and who really got the shares.

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FAQ

Q: When does Firmus list on the ASX?
A: October 23, 2026, if the timetable holds.

Q: What is the Firmus IPO price?
A: A$11 a share.

Q: What is Firmus worth at listing?
A: About A$43.7bn.

Q: How much is Firmus raising?
A: About A$7.1bn, with roughly half going to existing shareholders.

Q: Who backs Firmus?
A: Nvidia, Blackstone, Coatue and Jane Street, among others.

Q: When is the prospectus due?
A: Expected on October 12.

Disclaimer: General information only, not financial product advice. It does not consider anyone’s objectives, financial situation or needs. IPOs carry risk, so read the prospectus and speak to a licensed adviser before investing. Colitco or an associate may hold shares in companies mentioned.