The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed Thursday at 8,614.4 points. That was a 2% loss for the session. Still, Friday may be better. ASX futures suggest a rebound after the fall. Traders now want to know whether the bounce can last.
Oil, gold and two broker calls are the main items on the radar. Together, these macro market triggers Australia investors follow could set Australian equities sentiment for the session. Wall Street offered a calm lead overnight.
Figure 1: ASX signage beside a live share price board at the exchange [Courtesy: ASX]
Futures Point to a Gentler Start After a Heavy Fall
The Friday ASX 200 outlook begins with SPI futures. Pricing implies an opening gain of 0.55%, equal to 48 points. US indices finished slightly firmer overnight.
| Measure | Latest move |
| S&P/ASX 200, Thursday | Down 2% to 8,614.4 points |
| SPI futures, Friday open | Up 48 points, or 0.55% |
| Dow Jones | Up 0.05% |
| S&P 500 | Up 0.2% |
| Nasdaq | Up 0.05% |
Macro Market Triggers Australia Is Watching: Oil and Gold
Santos and Woodside Energy Group could finish the week strongly after oil prices jumped overnight. Bloomberg reported a jump in oil prices. WTI gained 3% to US$93.13 a barrel. Brent rose 4.6% to US$102.57 a barrel. Traders pointed to news that the US sent another aircraft carrier to the Middle East.
The energy sector will test whether those gains hold in local trade. That test may shape Australian equities sentiment early in the session.
Gold Edges Higher as Treasury Yields Ease
Evolution Mining and Newmont Corporation could also finish the week well. According to CNBC, gold futures rose 0.5% to US$4,207.6 an ounce overnight. Easing US Treasury yields gave the metal its lift. The gold mining sector now watches whether yields keep easing, another of the macro market triggers Australia follows.
| Commodity | Overnight move | Level |
| WTI crude | Up 3% | US$93.13 a barrel |
| Brent crude | Up 4.6% | US$102.57 a barrel |
| Gold futures | Up 0.5% | US$4,207.6 an ounce |
Bell Potter Backs Megaport and Trims Its Netwealth Target
Megaport received a buy rating from Bell Potter, which started coverage with an A$27.00 per share target. “We initiate coverage of Megaport with a BUY recommendation,” the broker said. It sees the cloud infrastructure provider at about 7 times FY28 EV/EBITDA. Domestic peers sit near 15 times, and international peers near 11 times.
Netwealth took a more cautious note. Bell Potter kept a buy rating, but it cut its price target to A$25.00 from A$30.00. The firm said higher rates drove the change. It also shifted its valuation view to match 2022 to 2023 levels. A class action provision was added too. It also expects flows to land below FY27 guidance.
Figure 2: Bell Potter, the broker behind the Megaport and Netwealth calls [Courtesy: Bell Potter]
About the Companies in Focus Today
Santos and Woodside Energy Group sit in the energy sector, while Evolution Mining and Newmont Corporation represent gold mining. Megaport is a cloud infrastructure provider, and Netwealth is an investment platform provider.
| Company | ASX code | Sector | Friday catalyst |
| Santos | STO | Energy | Oil price jump |
| Woodside Energy Group | WDS | Energy | Oil price jump |
| Evolution Mining | EVN | Gold | Gold price rise |
| Newmont Corporation | NEM | Gold | Gold price rise |
| Megaport | MP1 | Cloud infrastructure | New buy rating |
| Netwealth | NWL | Investment platform | Lower price target |
Industry Outlook: Energy and Gold Take Cues From Overseas Markets
The energy sector faces a session shaped by oil’s overnight jump and Middle East reports. The gold mining sector leans on easing US Treasury yields. Both reflect the macro market triggers Australia investors follow before the open.
Share Price Data Behind the ASX 200 Outlook
- S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO): 8,614.4 points as of 1 Oct 2026, after a 2% fall
- SPI futures: open indicated 48 points, or 0.55%, higher on 2 Oct 2026
- Megaport: Bell Potter price target of A$27.00 per share
- Netwealth: Bell Potter price target of A$25.00 per share, down from A$30.00 per share
Future Direction and Impact on Australian Equities Sentiment
Impact on the ASX 200: futures point to a higher open, yet the index is coming off a 2% fall. Futures show the likely start, not the close. Australian equities sentiment will depend on whether the overseas gains carry into local trade.
Impact on the energy sector: oil and Middle East headlines will guide Santos and Woodside Energy Group. Impact on the gold mining sector: easing yields support Evolution Mining and Newmont Corporation. The ASX 200 outlook therefore rests on how these overseas signals play out.
Colitco will keep tracking the ASX 200 outlook and the macro market triggers Australia investors follow.
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FAQs
Q1. What is the ASX 200 outlook for Friday?
Ans. SPI futures point to an open 48 points, or 0.55%, higher after Thursday’s 2% fall.
Q2. Which macro market triggers Australia is watching?
Ans. Higher oil prices, a firmer gold price and easing US Treasury yields.
Q3. How is Australian equities sentiment looking after Thursday?
Ans. Futures suggest a better start, though the index is coming off a 2% fall.
Q4. Which brokers made calls today?
Ans. Bell Potter rated Megaport a buy with an A$27.00 per share target. It kept a buy rating on Netwealth with an A$25.00 per share target.
Disclaimer
This article is meant only for informational purposes. If you are an investor watching the Australian share market closely, all data in this content is sourced from external sources. Kindly verify all information related to share price and market data before making any decisions. Any investment carries risk and should be made at the investor’s own risk. Colitco does not hold any position in the companies mentioned above.
Luke Carlino is a seasoned Copywriter, Content Strategist, and Social Media Manager specialising in Mining, Finance, and Business journalism. With more than a decade of industry experience, he brings rigorous editorial standards and commercial acuity to every project.
