Ontario Premier Doug Ford defied expectations again, securing his third consecutive majority government and firmly establishing himself as a key player in Canadian politics. Once dismissed as a “Trump-lite” figure by his critics, Ford has strategically repositioned himself as the so-called “anti-Trump,” a shift resonating with Ontario voters.
Ford’s Evolution: From Populist Outsider to Political Mainstay
Seven years ago, political opponents and media critics painted Doug as Canada’s version of Donald Trump, citing his blunt rhetoric, outsider appeal, and focus on blue-collar issues. Former Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne famously accused of engaging in “ugly, vicious politics,” comparing his style directly to Trump’s bombastic and controversial approach.
However, over time, Ford has crafted a different narrative. While his government’s policies are sometimes populist, they have largely avoided the deep ideological divides in Trump-era U.S. politics. Instead, his approach has been pragmatism, avoiding extreme partisanship while focusing on key economic and infrastructure concerns.
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Ford’s latest election victory came amid heightened tensions between Canada and the United States, with former U.S. President Donald Trump threatening new tariffs that could impact Ontario’s economy. Ford strategically framed his campaign around standing up to Trump, casting himself as the only leader who could protect Ontario’s economic interests.
This narrative played well with voters, particularly in suburban and working-class communities that had previously been a battleground between the Progressive Conservatives and opposition parties. While issues like healthcare remained a priority for voters, the company successfully leveraged concerns over economic stability and trade policy to his advantage. According to a Nanos poll released earlier this month, economic concerns and “dealing with Trump” ranked among the top voter priorities, with a combined 36% naming them as their primary election issue.
A Pro-Canada Platform That Paid Off
During the campaign, Ford made high-profile visits to Washington, D.C., donning pro-Canada apparel and emphasising his commitment to protecting Ontario businesses. He even suggested that a substantial Conservative majority in Ontario would send a message to Trump that Canada is “a force to be reckoned with.”
While opposition parties tried shifting the narrative towards healthcare and public services, Ford’s economic messaging proved more persuasive. Ultimately, he maintained strong support from his traditional conservative base while securing votes from working-class Ontarians who viewed him as a champion of Canadian interests.
Breaking the Trump Comparison Once and For All
The company’s ability to evolve beyond his initial branding as a Trump-style populist was crucial to his continued electoral success. Unlike Trump, whose presidency was marked by deep political polarisation, Ford has managed to govern from a more centrist position, balancing fiscal conservatism with pragmatic spending increases.
His government’s approach has included substantial infrastructure investments, moderate tax cuts, and measured spending on social services. While some conservatives have criticised Ford for not being aggressive enough in reducing government spending, his broader strategy of appealing to the “mushy middle” has made him one of the most electorally successful premiers in Ontario history.
This starkly contrasts his late brother, Rob Ford, the former Toronto mayor whose controversial tenure included headline-grabbing scandals. While Rob Ford’s brash style invited direct comparisons to Trump, Doug Ford has taken a more disciplined and calculated approach to governance.
Alienating Critics While Winning Elections
Despite his electoral success, Ford remains a divisive figure in Ontario politics. He consistently ranks among the country’s least popular premiers, and critics accuse him of prioritising political expediency over bold leadership. Yet, as this election’s results demonstrate, he continues outperforming his opposition when it matters most.
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Ford’s ability to secure another majority despite lukewarm personal approval ratings speaks to his political instincts. He has positioned himself as a moderate conservative who can appeal to traditional and centrist voters while keeping his core base engaged.
While opposition parties attempted to label Ford out of touch with progressive values, his campaign focused on tangible, everyday concerns—reducing gridlock, expanding access to alcohol sales, or standing firm against Trump’s trade policies. His message resonated with those alienated by the progressive elite and frustrated with bureaucracy.
A Lesson for Federal Conservatives?
Ford’s success carries broader implications for Canadian politics, particularly as federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre seeks to expand his party’s appeal before the next federal election. Poilievre has similarly faced comparisons to Trump, with critics accusing him of leveraging populist rhetoric to galvanise support.
However, Ford’s victory suggests that winning elections in Canada requires a more nuanced approach than simply embracing right-wing populism. His ability to balance conservative values with pragmatic governance offers a potential blueprint for Poilievre, demonstrating that broad electoral success is possible when ideological purity is tempered with practical decision-making.
As Ford celebrates his historic third majority, one thing is clear: the “Trump-lite” label no longer applies. Instead, he has solidified his reputation as a uniquely Canadian political force that defies easy categorisation and continues to outmaneuver his critics at every turn.
