At AUB Group’s annual meeting on 12 November, the figure that changed was at the bottom of the range. The insurance broking group had previously put A$245 million at the low end of its FY27 underlying profit forecast. It now expects at least A$250 million, while leaving its upper estimate at A$265 million.
The UK expansion explains part of that confidence. But the AUB Group earnings forecast puts more weight on the brokers and agencies it already owns. How those businesses perform could change the annual result by A$13 million. For shareholders, that is a bigger swing than the one AUB expects from acquisitions.
Figure 1: AUB Group’s 2026 annual meeting presentation, where the insurance group raised the lower end of its FY27 earnings guidance. Credit: AUB Group Limited.
Where Does AUB Expect the Extra Profit to Come From?
AUB earned A$224.6 million in underlying net profit after tax in FY26. To reach the midpoint of its new guidance, it needs another A$32.9 million. Management’s forecast shows where that money could come from and how much higher borrowing costs would take back.
| What changes in FY27 | Expected effect on underlying profit |
| Growth from existing businesses | Adds A$22.1m to A$35.1m |
| Acquisitions and increased ownership stakes | Add A$17.5m to A$19.5m |
| Higher funding costs | Reduce profit by A$10.9m |
| Foreign exchange movements assumed in guidance | Reduce profit by A$3.3m |
| FY27 underlying net profit after tax | A$250m to A$265m |
There is a useful clue in those ranges. Just A$2 million separates the low and high estimates for acquisitions. The forecast includes completed deals and those management considers highly certain. The wider uncertainty lies with the existing businesses: their contribution accounts for A$13 million of the A$15 million spread in the overall AUB Group profit forecast.
What Has the UK Expansion Added?
Buying Tysers gave AUB a larger international wholesale broking business. Its investments in Momentum, Movo and Prestige then extended its reach into UK retail broking and underwriting agencies. Timing matters for Prestige in particular. AUB completed that acquisition in March 2026, so FY26 included only part of a year under its ownership. FY27 captures a full year.
The international division was already earning more from the business it handled. In FY26, its underlying profit before tax rose 19.6%, and its operating margin climbed from 23.5% to 27.6%. On AUB’s divisional reporting basis, that meant the operation kept about A$27.60 in earnings before interest and tax for every A$100 of revenue, against A$23.50 a year earlier.
For readers comparing brokers with the insurers that write the policies, Colitco’s guide to earnings across Australia’s listed insurance businesses provides a useful point of comparison. AUB’s network places more than A$11 billion in premiums with insurers. That figure measures the insurance it arranges; it is not AUB’s revenue.
Which Businesses Still Have to Deliver?
The overseas acquisitions can draw attention away from a sizeable difference closer to home. Three FY26 figures give shareholders a starting point for judging the next result:
- Australian Broking: Underlying profit before tax rose 10.0%. It was AUB’s largest individual operating division by revenue, so even a modest change in its margin matters.
- BizCover: Underlying profit before tax rose 19.9%. The digital business grew slightly faster on this measure than the international division.
- New Zealand: Revenue fell 5.7%, and the operating margin declined from 34.4% to 33.1%. AUB has made restoring performance a FY27 priority. The next result should show whether the revenue decline has begun to ease.
Why Will Profit Per Share Grow More Slowly?
A shareholder who owned one AUB share before the March equity raising still owns one share unless they bought more. The difference is that AUB’s profit is now divided across a larger weighted average number of shares.
That is why the AUB Group FY27 earnings outlook contains two distinct growth rates. Management expects underlying profit to rise 11.3% to 18.0%. Underlying earnings per share, however, are forecast to rise 4.2% to 10.4%, from 183.69 cents in FY26 to between 191.36 and 202.85 cents. Both measures improve across the forecast range, but the per-share figure is the more useful comparison for someone assessing what the expansion adds to an existing holding.
The half-year result also needs to be read on AUB’s timetable. At the midpoint, management expects 43% of annual earnings in the first half and 57% in the second. Doubling the December-half profit would therefore understate the full-year result if the business performs as planned.
A better test will be whether the established brokers are delivering growth and whether funding costs are tracking close to the A$10.9 million increase already in the budget.
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FAQs
Did AUB Raise Its Entire FY27 Forecast?
No. AUB lifted the lower end from A$245 million to A$250 million. The upper end stayed at A$265 million. The revised midpoint of A$257.5 million implies 14.6% growth on FY26.
Is AUB Forecasting Statutory Net Profit?
No. The guidance is for underlying net profit after tax, after non-controlling interests. AUB excludes certain items, including acquisition-related costs and amortisation of customer and servicing contracts. Statutory profit can therefore differ from the guided figure.
How Much Difference Could Exchange Rates Make?
AUB estimates that a 1% rise in the Australian dollar against the US dollar would reduce midpoint underlying profit by about A$1 million. A 1% fall would have roughly the opposite effect. The group has hedged about half its forecast US-dollar brokerage income.
Does AUB Expect to Earn More in the Second Half of FY27?
Yes. At the midpoint of its forecast, AUB expects to earn 43% of its underlying annual profit in the first half and 57% in the second. If earnings follow that pattern, doubling the December half-year result would understate the full-year figure.
Disclaimer: This article provides general information, not personal financial advice. FY27 figures are management forecasts as at 12 November 2026. Actual results may differ.
Luke Carlino is a seasoned Copywriter, Content Strategist, and Social Media Manager specialising in Mining, Finance, and Business journalism. With more than a decade of industry experience, he brings rigorous editorial standards and commercial acuity to every project.
