BHP Group Limited (ASX: BHP) faces two very different stories heading into FY27. One project just got a lot more expensive. Copper demand is picking up the slack. The Company remains a central pick for anyone tracking the BHP stock forecast 2027 Australia investors care about most.
Figure 1: BHP Group corporate office [Courtesy: Bloomberg]
Recent operational results show resilience across copper and iron ore. This mix of setbacks and strengths defines the current BHP growth potential Australia mining stocks conversation.
Jansen Potash Costs Blow Out Sharply
BHP confirmed on 18 Jun 2026 that its Jansen Stage 2 potash investment will rise substantially. The total cost estimate increased from US$4.9 billion to US$6.9 billion.
The Company expects to recognise an impairment charge of approximately US$2.3 billion. This relates to the aggregate Jansen asset base as at 30 Jun 2026. First production from Jansen Stage 2 has shifted to late FY2031.
Figure 2: Jansen Potash Project in Saskatchewan, Canada [Courtesy: BHP]
Why the Delay Happened
The increase stems mainly from additional construction hours and material quantities. Escalation and productivity pressures during the two-year extension also contributed heavily.
Engineering work on Jansen Stage 2 sat at 83 per cent complete by the end of May 2026. Physical construction progress reached only 16 per cent at that point.
Who Is Involved and Where
The Jansen Potash Project sits in Saskatchewan, Canada. It sits roughly 150 kilometres east of Saskatoon. BHP President Americas and incoming CEO Brandon Craig addressed the update directly.
Craig said the combined Jansen mine will operate as a low cost, long life asset. He described an almost 60 year mine life once both stages ramp up fully.
Copper Powers a Strong Quarterly Performance
BHP’s operational review for the nine months ended 31 Mar 2026 highlighted copper strength. Group copper production is now tracking toward the upper half of FY26 guidance.
Escondida in Chile delivered record material mined and record concentrator throughput. Antamina in Peru lifted copper output by 19 per cent, prompting an upgraded guidance range.
Figure 3: Copper mining operation supporting global supply [Courtesy: CarbonCredits.com]
Leadership Change Adds Another Layer
Brandon Craig will formally become BHP’s Chief Executive Officer from 1 Jul 2026. Mike Henry steps down after six and a half years at the helm. Craig takes over from here.
Craig has spent more than 25 years inside BHP, across operations and corporate leadership. He was there when BHP became the world’s largest copper producer.
Where the Growth Story Is Playing Out
BHP’s copper growth engine spans Chile, Peru, and Australia, alongside its Canadian potash assets. In March 2026, BHP submitted a permit application for Escondida’s new concentrator.
Resolution Copper, a joint venture between Rio Tinto and BHP, also advanced meaningfully. The project completed a land exchange in Arizona, enabling further resource drilling work.
BHP Share Price Snapshot
BHP Group Limited (ASX: BHP) shares last traded around A$58.340 as at 13 Jul 2026.
- Market capitalisation: approximately A$296.14 billion
- 52-week range: A$38.660 to A$65.980
- Shares rose 2.5 per cent on the prior Friday session
- Year-to-date gain reported at roughly 28 per cent
- 12-month gain reported at roughly 54 per cent
Figure 4: BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price chart [Courtesy: ASX]
What Brokers Say About BHP’s Outlook
Broker sentiment on BHP stays largely constructive despite the Jansen cost increase. Few analysts hold an outright bearish view heading into FY27.
Morgan Stanley retains an overweight rating with a $67.50 price target. Morgans holds a neutral rating with a raised target of $59.80.
Bank of America maintains a hold rating with a $65 target price. CitiGroup and Jefferies also carry hold ratings, at $63 and $65 respectively.
Together, these views frame much of the current BHP stock forecast 2027 Australia investors are weighing. The spread of targets suggests confidence tempered by near-term caution.
Industry Outlook for Copper and Potash
Copper demand continues climbing on electric vehicle growth and renewable energy build-out. Global copper prices reached notable highs during the recent quarter under review.
Potash remains a non-substitutable crop nutrient supporting global agricultural production. Demand growth is forecast between 1 and 2 per cent annually through 2050, according to BHP’s own market assessment.
These dynamics reinforce broader BHP growth potential Australia mining stocks discussions among analysts. Long mine lives and constrained global supply support pricing over time.
Future Direction and Impact on Australian Investors
The impact on shareholder returns will hinge on copper prices and Jansen’s execution discipline. BHP’s balance sheet strength, aided by recent divestments, supports continued capital flexibility.
Investors watching the BHP Group Ltd shares 2027 outlook Australia should track Jansen Stage 2 progress closely. Copper guidance updates and Brandon Craig’s early strategic
ALSO READ: Culpeo Minerals Launches Entitlement Issue to Fund Copper Exploration Growth in Chile
FAQ
Q1. Why did BHP’s Jansen potash costs increase so much?
Ans. Additional construction hours, material quantities, and cost escalation drove the increase.
Q2. Who will lead BHP from July 2026?
Ans. Brandon Craig becomes Chief Executive Officer, succeeding Mike Henry.
Q3. Is BHP still a buy according to brokers?
Ans. Most brokers hold a neutral rating, with Morgan Stanley remaining the most bullish.
Q4. What is driving BHP’s copper growth?
Ans. Rising electric vehicle and renewable energy demand continues lifting copper prices.
Disclaimer
This article is meant only for informational purposes. If you are an investor watching BHP Group Limited closely, all data published in this content is sourced from ASX announcements and external sources. Kindly verify all information related to the share price and market data. Any investment should be made at the investor’s own risk. Colitco does not hold any position in the above-mentioned Company.
Source
- https://www.fool.com.au/2026/07/13/should-you-buy-bhp-shares-fy27-heres-what-experts-are-saying/
- https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/BHP
- https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-03081111-3A691768&v=undefined
- https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-03101647-3A695576&v=undefined
Luke Carlino is a seasoned Copywriter, Content Strategist, and Social Media Manager specialising in Mining, Finance, and Business journalism. With more than a decade of industry experience, he brings rigorous editorial standards and commercial acuity to every project.
