The UK government is set to take a decisive step in the global fight against climate change by announcing more stringent emissions targets at the upcoming UN Climate Summit COP29, scheduled in Azerbaijan this November. This anticipated move marks a significant shift in the UK’s climate policy and positions the nation as a key player in international efforts to curb global warming.
UK’s Enhanced Climate Ambitions for COP29
The UN Climate Summit COP29 is expected to be a critical juncture in global climate negotiations, where countries will converge to discuss and commit to more robust measures to combat climate change. As part of its strategy for COP29, the UK is likely to present a new nationally determined contribution (NDC) that will surpass its current commitment of a 68% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 1990. This ambitious target reflects the urgency of the global climate crisis, with scientists warning that the world must drastically reduce emissions to keep global temperature increases within 1.5°C above preindustrial levels—a threshold identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as critical to avoiding the most catastrophic impacts of climate change, underscoring the gravity of the situation and the need for immediate and substantial action.
The UK’s existing NDC, set under the Paris Agreement, already ranks among the most ambitious in the world. According to the Climate Action Tracker, if fully implemented, the UK’s climate policies and commitments would contribute significantly to keeping global warming below 2°C. However, with the IPCC’s latest report emphasising the need for even more aggressive cuts, the UK’s upcoming announcement at COP29 is expected to set an even higher benchmark for climate action.
Leading this charge is Ed Miliband, the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, who strongly advocates for more robust climate policies. Backed by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Miliband will announce the UK’s new NDC before the official submission deadline, signaling the country’s intent to lead by example at COP29. This proactive stance is crucial to inspire other nations to enhance their climate commitments, fostering a global momentum towards more ambitious climate action and encouraging others to join the fight against climate change.
The timing of this announcement is particularly significant. The UN Climate Summit COP29 comes when the world is experiencing the tangible effects of climate change more acutely than ever. In 2023 alone, extreme weather events caused by climate change—including devastating wildfires in Canada, unprecedented flooding in Europe, and record-breaking heatwaves in Asia—resulted in billions of dollars in damages and significant loss of life. According to a report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2023 was one of the hottest years, with global temperatures approximately 1.2°C above preindustrial levels. This alarming trend underscores the need for immediate and substantial action to prevent further warming.
The UK’s leadership on this issue is expected to fill a void left by other developed nations, many of which are currently facing political challenges that may hinder their ability to take bold climate action. Traditionally a strong advocate for climate action under President Emmanuel Macron, France is grappling with domestic political turmoil. Meanwhile, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces significant opposition at home, complicating his climate agenda. The United States, another key player in global climate negotiations, will be preoccupied with its presidential election in November, potentially limiting its influence at COP29. These factors have created a leadership gap among the world’s major economies, which the UK appears ready and poised to fill.
Activists and climate campaigners have lauded the UK’s renewed focus on climate leadership, particularly in the UN Climate Summit COP29 context. Harjeet Singh, Global Engagement Director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, emphasized the significance of the UK’s potential early announcement, stating, “The UK has a critical opportunity to set the bar for climate leadership and equity by announcing a robust NDC well ahead of COP29. This proactive approach would not only signal to other developed nations the urgency of abandoning fossil fuel production and committing to a future powered by renewables, but also set a new standard for global climate action.”
The UK’s strategy for COP29 is also closely tied to its efforts to build stronger relationships with the global south. This region has historically been disproportionately affected by climate change despite contributing the least to global emissions. According to the World Bank, developing countries are expected to bear 75-80% of the costs of climate change despite emitting only a fraction of the world’s greenhouse gases. Miliband’s recent visit to Brazil, the current president of the G20 and host of next year’s COP30, was seen as a significant step in this direction. During his visit, Miliband emphasised the importance of collaboration between developed and developing countries in tackling the climate crisis, a theme expected to resonate strongly with COP29.
In preparation for COP29, the UK government has also sought the advice of the Climate Change Committee (CCC) on setting new targets for 2035. The CCC’s recommendations, expected to be published before the autumn budget in late October, will provide a scientific basis for the UK’s new NDC. The CCC has previously advised that the UK should aim for a 78% reduction in emissions by 2035, a target that aligns with the country’s legal commitment to reach net zero by 2050. If adopted, this would place the UK among the world’s leading nations regarding climate ambition.
As the world prepares for the UN Climate Summit COP29, the UK’s commitment to more vital emissions targets will be closely watched. The country’s efforts to re-establish itself as a global leader in climate action are crucial for the success of COP29 and the broader fight against climate change. With the stakes higher than ever, the UK’s actions at COP29 could set the tone for the next decade of international climate policy, driving a collective effort to secure a sustainable future for all.
