Reform UK has pulled off a historic upset in the Runcorn and Helsby byelection, snatching the seat from Labour by just six votes—a dramatic outcome that signals a growing threat to the two-party system and poses new questions for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership.
The razor-thin victory came after a tense recount in the early hours of Friday morning, ultimately confirming Reform candidate Sarah Pochin as the winner with 12,645 votes to Labour’s 12,639. The result represents a remarkable 17% swing away from Labour and marks the first time in more than five decades that the Cheshire constituency will not be represented by a Labour MP.
A Historic Margin, a Tectonic Shift
The contest set a postwar record for the slimmest margin of victory in a parliamentary byelection. With the result confirmed just after 6 a.m. at the DCBL Stadium in Widnes, jubilant Reform supporters hailed it as a breakthrough moment, while Labour aides left the count in silence, visibly shaken.
“This is more than just a win—it’s a statement,” said Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, speaking at the count centre. “We’ve seen massive shifts from Labour in the north, from Conservatives in the south. Reform is becoming the new opposition.”
Despite the marginal nature of the result, the political implications are significant. For Reform UK—a party often dismissed as a fringe populist movement—the win delivers their fifth seat in Parliament and solidifies their presence ahead of the next general election.
Collapse of the Conservative Vote
While Labour’s defeat drew headlines, the collapse of the Conservative vote was equally startling. The Tories plummeted to just 7%—a dramatic fall from the 16% they secured in the 2024 general election. The Green Party trailed close behind.
The byelection was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Mike Amesbury, who was convicted earlier this year for assaulting a constituent. From the outset, Labour faced an uphill battle, saddled with the fallout of Amesbury’s conduct and a resurgent Reform party determined to exploit the discontent.
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Farage’s National Strategy Begins to Deliver
Farage, who campaigned personally in Runcorn and across key local races, framed the contest as a referendum on the establishment parties and on issues like immigration, energy bills, and public safety. Reform candidates hammered Labour for its decision to cut the winter fuel allowance and for its handling of prisoner release policies.
In a constituency that is overwhelmingly white and working-class, Reform’s strategy clearly resonated. Voters expressed concerns over asylum seekers, so-called “houses of multiple occupancy,” and even the rising number of Turkish barbers—signs of demographic change that Reform portrayed as threatening to British culture.
In her victory speech, Pochin, a former Conservative councillor and magistrate, thanked supporters and took aim at both major parties.
“Enough is enough—enough of Conservative failure, enough of Labour lies,” she said. “Tonight, the people of Runcorn have stood up for their values, and I hope this inspires the rest of the country to do the same.”
A Blow to Starmer’s Authority
The result will be particularly troubling for Starmer, whose party had held Runcorn since 1974. Though byelections often serve as outlets for protest votes, this result underscores the vulnerability of even Labour strongholds to a right-wing insurgency.
Labour candidate Karen Shore, who left the venue without addressing the media, had faced criticism during the campaign for launching a petition to close a hotel housing asylum seekers. Some observers saw the move as a misguided attempt to outflank Reform on immigration, further eroding Labour’s credibility.
A Labour spokesperson acknowledged the challenges: “Byelections are always tough for the party in government. The circumstances that led to this contest were deeply damaging, and voters are still rightly furious about the state of the country after 14 years of failure. But what’s also clear is that the Conservative vote has collapsed.”
Turnout and Tension at the Count
Turnout reached 46.3%—a notably high figure for a byelection, which many attributed to the “Farage factor.” As the night wore on, both Labour and Reform campaigners described the result as “too close to call,” though Reform officials appeared increasingly confident.
At one point, speculation grew as media crews gathered by the entrance in anticipation of Farage’s arrival—only to learn he was still waiting in a nearby car, apparently awaiting confirmation of the final numbers.
In the end, Farage emerged to claim the moment as a turning point in British politics.
“This isn’t a one-off,” he said. “This is the beginning.”
