This BHP Group analysis starts on a Friday afternoon that had nothing to do with anything BHP actually did. Shares in the miner dropped 4.1 per cent on 11 September 2026, closing at $60.87 on the ASX, the worst session for the stock since mid-June.
The trigger sat in Washington. Reuters reported the White House still hasn’t decided whether to put tariffs on refined copper, and copper prices dropped hard on the news.
That single story dragged the whole materials sector down 3.7 per cent, the steepest one-day fall for miners since 19 June. Rio Tinto lost 3.5 per cent. Lithium miners Liontown and PLS fell even harder.
Odd timing, given what BHP had posted less than a month earlier.
Why BHP Group’s Earnings Mix Just Flipped
On 18 August, BHP released full year results for the twelve months to 30 June 2026. New chief executive Brandon Craig and chief financial officer Vandita Pant walked the market through a genuinely different looking business.
Copper overtook iron ore as BHP’s largest earnings contributor for the first time in FY26. [BHP Group]
For the first time in the company’s history, copper out-earned iron ore. The metal delivered US$18.2 billion of underlying EBITDA, more than half the group total, at a 70 per cent margin.
Some of the headline figures from the year:
- Underlying EBITDA: US$32.9 billion, up 27 per cent
- Underlying attributable profit: US$13.2 billion, up 30 per cent
- Net operating cash flow: US$21.8 billion, up 17 per cent
- Net debt: US$8.7 billion, down from US$12.9 billion
- Copper’s share of underlying EBITDA: more than 54 per cent, a first
Iron ore still did plenty of work, with a record 265 million tonnes shipped from Western Australia. But the growth story, and increasingly the profit story, now belongs to copper.
The Numbers That Don’t Make The Headlines
Escondida, the huge Chilean mine operated by BHP along with Rio Tinto and a Japanese consortium, produced less copper this year. Production declined by 3 per cent to 1,261 kilotonnes.
It was not done by mistake. The concentrator was run at 0.90 per cent feed grade, down from 1.02 per cent
The ore is getting harder to reach, which is why BHP wants to spend between US$4.4 billion and US$5.9 billion on a new concentrator to replace the ageing Los Colorados plant. First output from that project isn’t expected before 2031.
Then there’s Port Hedland, the export hub that shifts roughly $80 million of BHP’s iron ore every day.
About 450 port workers have spent most of 2026 negotiating a new four year pay deal, and it hasn’t gone smoothly. They walked off the job on 16 July, the first strike at the port in around 25 years, then again in August.
Talks collapsed once more on 8 September, three days before Friday’s market slide. BHP’s latest offer sits at a 17 per cent pay rise over four years plus a $25,000 transition payment. The Fair Work Commission is due to sit in on the next round.
BHP’s main copper growth projects and their expected timelines. [BHP Group]
Copper’s Growth Pipeline Still Needs Big Decisions
A final dividend of 99 US cents a share, fully franked, to be paid on 23 September, has been announced by BHP. Together with the interim payment, the total annual cash return is US$8.7 billion, which is the largest in four years.
Craig took over as chief executive on 1 July, replacing Mike Henry, under chairman Ross McEwan. He now has to fund a growing list of copper projects without stretching the balance sheet.
Copper South Australia and the Escondida upgrade both need capital. So does Vicuña, the Argentine district BHP owns fifty-fifty with Lundin Mining, where a stage one investment decision could land before year’s end. Stage one alone is priced at roughly US$7.1 billion.
Not everything was clean. BHP booked a US$2.3 billion impairment on its Jansen potash project in Canada after stage two costs rose from US$4.9 billion to US$6.9 billion. A contracting worker also died at the BMA coal business in July, a detail Craig raised himself in the results statement.
A Price That Depends On A Decision Nobody’s Made
Copper touched a record above US$14,700 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange in early August, partly because buyers were stockpiling ahead of an expected US tariff on refined copper.
Washington was meant to decide by 30 June. It didn’t. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick handed over a market review, but no tariff call followed, and officials are said to be wary of lifting manufacturing costs ahead of November’s midterm elections.
That gap cuts two ways for BHP. Delay keeps a floor under prices for now, while a firm decision, whichever way it goes, could move copper sharply.
China remains the other half of the story. BHP expects the country to keep producing around a billion tonnes of steel a year this decade, which still underpins iron ore demand even as the growth narrative shifts toward copper.
BHP’s move away from iron ore dependence has been building for a while, something this earlier look at BHP’s copper growth against iron ore headwinds flagged months before copper overtook iron ore in the ledger. The record nine-month production update back in April hinted at where the full year would land. Investors chasing direct copper exposure beyond a diversified miner have plenty of ASX names to work through, and the renewable energy demand story behind copper keeps pulling fresh capital into the sector. BHP has been down the trade-pressure road before too, when China’s state ore-buying agency widened a ban on some of its iron ore products last year.
None Of This Points To An Easy Read
Copper margins near 70 per cent are hard to argue with. The growth pipeline, Escondida, Vicuña, Copper South Australia, is real, and BHP says it can fund the program from its own cash flow at current prices.
But grade decline at the world’s biggest copper mine, a labour dispute at the world’s biggest iron ore port, an unresolved US tariff call and a nine-figure writedown in Canada all sit inside the same annual report as the record EBITDA number.
Friday’s four per cent drop wasn’t about anything BHP did wrong. It showed how fast a copper-heavy earnings mix can move once Washington goes quiet and traders start pricing in every outcome at once.
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FAQs
Q: Why was the share price of BHP down on 11 September 2026?
A: Because copper prices fell as a result of a Reuters report on refined copper tariff uncertainty from the White House, and the mining companies’ shares fell together.
Q: Has copper now become BHP’s top earner?
A: Yes, for the first time. More than half of the company’s underlying EBITDA has been generated by copper, compared to iron ore.
Q: When will the final dividend for the FY26 be paid?
A: 23 September 2026, 99 US cents a share, fully franked.
Q: What is going on in the pay dispute at Port Hedland?
A: Talks broke down again on 8 September. BHP’s offer stands at a 17 per cent pay rise over four years, with more talks ahead.
Q: Who runs BHP now?
A: Brandon Craig.
Disclaimer
This article is general information only and does not constitute financial product advice. It does not take into account any reader’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Colitco accepts no responsibility for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content. Readers should seek advice from a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. Share prices and commodity prices referenced are current as at the time of writing and are subject to change.
Luke Carlino is a seasoned Copywriter, Content Strategist, and Social Media Manager specialising in Mining, Finance, and Business journalism. With more than a decade of industry experience, he brings rigorous editorial standards and commercial acuity to every project.
