Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is back in the spotlight after Elon Musk revealed an ambitious new chip manufacturing venture over the weekend of 24 Mar 2026. Barclays analyst Dan Levy maintained an Equal Weight rating on the stock, backed by a US$360 price target, sitting 5.5% below the prevailing Tesla stock price today.
Figure 1: Tesla logo representing the electric vehicle and AI technology company [Courtesy: Reuters]
The venture, known as Terafab, is a joint project between Tesla and SpaceX. Musk described it as a facility capable of producing AI chips at 50 times the volume currently manufactured annually by all major global companies combined. The initial site is planned at Tesla’s Austin, Texas headquarters, with an expected investment of at least US$20 billion.
Barclays on the Tesla Stock Forecast 2026 and the Terafab Announcement
Levy Acknowledges the Scale While Maintaining Caution
Barclays analyst Dan Levy described the Terafab announcement as reinforcing the idea that chips are central to Tesla’s growth strategy over the next decade and beyond, and sit at the centre of the Company’s physical AI ambitions.
Levy noted, however, that he had underestimated the scale of targets Elon Musk would present, stating that he failed to grasp the sheer size of the ambitions outlined in the presentation.
Levy had previously anticipated Tesla would pursue significant chip aspirations and viewed the Terafab strategy as a response to supply constraints. The Tesla stock forecast 2026 from Barclays, however, remains cautious, with the US$360 price target reflecting the analyst’s view that near-term fundamentals do not yet support a more bullish position.
The Terafab Presentation and Its Long-Term Targets
Tesla’s Terafab presentation outlined what Levy described as a hyper-growth thesis. Among the targets presented was an ultra-long-term goal of 1 petawatt of compute, equivalent to 1,000 terawatts, or roughly 300 times the total electricity humanity uses at any given moment.
Levy noted that even if Tesla’s short-term business performance stays soft, investors who are already committed to the long-term story are likely to see this as more reason to stay invested, which could further strengthen what he described as the meme element of the stock.
Figure 2: Elon Musk presenting the Terafab chip venture alongside Tesla and SpaceX branding [Courtesy: X]
The semiconductor manufacturing industry is both highly complex and capital-intensive. Levy drew a comparison to Tesla’s 2020 Battery Day, where the Company set a target of 3 TWh of battery capacity by 2030, a goal it has so far fallen well short of. In his view, Terafab follows a similar pattern.
Barclays stated: “We view the announced Terafab project as a ‘show-me story,’ and expect to see much smaller-scale aspirations, at least in the near/mid-term.” While the scale of ambition is hard to ignore, Levy was not convinced the plans would translate quickly into results.
Terafab Capital Expenditure Estimates and Street Consensus
Barclays Views Its Own Bull Case as Dramatically Low
Levy acknowledged that his earlier spending estimate of US$50 billion or more for Terafab now looks far too conservative given what Tesla has laid out. He noted that the actual cost could run many times higher than that figure.
Despite this, Levy observed that TSLA bulls appear prepared for significant capital deployment, recognising that competing at that scale requires substantial investment.
On the broader Street consensus, Tesla stock carries 13 Buy ratings, 10 Hold ratings, and 7 Sell ratings, resulting in an overall Hold consensus. The average analyst price target stands at US$399.25, implying approximately 5% upside from the price at the time of the analysis.
Tesla FSD Subscription Cost and the Broader Product Context
Full Self-Driving Remains a Key Pillar of Tesla’s AI Narrative
The Tesla FSD subscription cost remains a closely watched metric for investors assessing the Company’s recurring revenue potential alongside its broader AI and autonomy strategy. Levy’s framing of chips as the pillar for Tesla’s growth over the next decade places the FSD programme within the same physical AI push that underpins the Terafab announcement.
The Tesla FSD subscription cost, alongside the Terafab ambitions, remains part of the broader case analysts are building around Tesla, one that still needs to prove itself through actual results rather than announcements.
Tesla Stock Price Today
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is currently trading at US$380.85 per share, up US$12.89 or 3.50% at the close. The Company carries a market capitalisation of US$1.429 trillion. The 52-week range stands at US$214.25 to US$498.83 per share.
Figure 3: Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) share price performance over the past year [Courtesy: Nasdaq]
Industry Outlook
The global artificial intelligence chip manufacturing sector is experiencing rapid capacity expansion, driven by demand from large language model training, autonomous systems, and data centre buildout. Major semiconductor players are committing hundreds of billions of dollars to new fabrication capacity across the United States, Asia, and Europe.
For investors tracking ASX mining sustainability trends in Australia and global technology stocks alike, the shift toward vertically integrated AI infrastructure, where companies like Tesla aim to control chip design and manufacturing alongside software and hardware deployment, represents one of the defining capital allocation themes of the current decade.
Future Direction and Impact on Tesla Stock Forecast and Investor Sentiment
The Terafab announcement positions Tesla well beyond its origins as an electric vehicle manufacturer. For those tracking the Tesla stock forecast 2026, the central question remains execution credibility. Barclays’ Equal Weight rating and US$360 price target reflect a view that the ambition is not yet matched by near-term fundamentals, and that history, as Levy noted, suggests caution.
The Tesla stock price today reflects a market still pricing in significant long-term optionality. Whether Terafab follows the trajectory of Battery Day or becomes a genuine inflection point for the Company will likely define the Tesla stock forecast well beyond 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1. What is the Tesla stock forecast 2026 according to Barclays?
Ans. Barclays maintains an Equal Weight rating with a US$360 price target, sitting 5.5% below the stock’s price at the time of the note.
Q2. What is the Terafab project?
Ans. Terafab is a planned joint venture between Tesla and SpaceX to manufacture AI chips at scale, with initial production planned in Austin, Texas, and an expected investment of at least US$20 billion.
Q3. What is the Tesla FSD subscription cost relevance here?
Ans. The Tesla FSD subscription cost sits within the same physical AI strategy that underpins Terafab, and is a key metric investors watch alongside Tesla’s broader autonomy and AI revenue narrative.-
Q4. What is the Street consensus on Tesla stock price today?
Ans. The Street holds 13 Buys, 10 Holds, and 7 Sells on TSLA, with an average price target of US$399.25, implying approximately 5% upside.
DISCLAIMER
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. All content is based on publicly available analyst commentary and market data reported as at 24 Mar 2026. Share price and market capitalisation data reflect figures provided at the time of publication. Investing in securities involves risk. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent financial or investment advice before making any investment decisions. Colitco does not hold any position in the companies or organisations mentioned.
Sources
https://www.tipranks.com/news/history-suggests-caution-says-barclays-about-tesla-stock-tsla
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla
