Why did Aussie Broadband raise its EBITDA guidance?
Aussie Broadband, proud of solid operational performance and growth in demand, upgraded its guidance for FY25 underlying EBITDA.
The company now expects an EBITDA between A$133 million and A$138 million, whereas before it had A$125 million – A$135 million.
This change reflected better trading conditions, along with a focus on disciplined cost management across its divisions.
The uplift came with stronger customer acquisitions in the residential and enterprise segments, thus implying greater returns from fibre and mobile expansion.
Management also indicated that earnings gains were supported by efficiency and scalable platforms.
Aussie Broadband witnesses growth
How significant is the increase in Capex?
FY25 upgraded earnings forecasts saw Aussie Broadband also increase its capex outlook.
Capex for FY25 is expected to be between A$75 million and A$80 million, against a previous projection of A$55 million to A$60 million.
The greater capital outlay is to hasten fibre infrastructure roll-outs, investments in cloud systems, subsea cable projects, and inter-capital connectivity.
Further capital will go towards bolstering mobile services, post the signing of Binding Heads of Agreement with Optus.
By building out network assets, the group presents itself for traffic growth and resilience in the future. The upgrades will improve margins and lessen the dependence on leased infrastructure over the longer term.
What drove Q3’s strong net connections?
In Q3 FY25, 24,279 net broadband connections were reported by Aussie Broadband, marking a 29% increase over the same quarter of the preceding year.
Those 9,695 connections were added by the low-cost “Buddy” brand, which demonstrates demand for value propositions.
Enterprise and government divisions also aided gains as a result of heavier project activity and increased uptake of fibre.
Mobile subscribers gained further momentum in the endorsement of competitive pricing and better bundled offers.
In the same period, a further 25 percent of steady market share growth has seen the Aussie Broadband mutate into a challenger.
ABB Market Share Trend
Aussie Broadband reaffirms outlook and unveils long-term vision
During Investor Day, the group reaffirmed its recently updated EBITDA and Capex guidance.
The company outlined its “Look-to-28”-growth strategy, which forecasts massive growth from now on to the coming three years.
Targets were stated to include group revenue of greater than A$1.6 billion by FY28 compared to FY24 levels.
It is expected that the EBITDA margin will exceed 12.5% levels, and revenue share from residential below 60%.
Management also projects NBN market share, non-sat, to rise beyond 11%.
This is indeed a shift toward building a diversified revenue mix in the enterprise, government and wholesale segment.
Aussie Broadband invests heavily in fibre and mobile platforms
Investment in Aussie Fibre remains key to the long-term strategy. The company is deploying capacity on inter-capital and subsea infrastructure to secure capacity at a cheaper rate.
Cloud platforms and internal systems are also being upgraded to keep up with automation-related and customer growth.
The new Optus MVNO arrangement fortifies the mobile strategy, granting access to better spectrum and coverage.
This will let Aussie Broadband scale its mobile subscriber numbers while keeping a competitive price.
Management sees these moves as creating sustainable earnings growth and customer stickiness.
Profit outlook
Shareholder returns remain a priority
The company stands by its objectives of reinforcing shareholder value even in great reinvestments.
The Board declared a fully franked interim dividend of 1.6 cents per share and a special dividend of 2.4 cents per share.
A healthy balance sheet with a low net leverage ratio offers capacity for both growth funding and distributions.
This balanced approach ensures that investors are rewarded while the infrastructure investments sustain on a long-term basis.
According to the analysts, the dividend signals confidence in cash generation and prudent capital management.
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Market implications and investor outlook
With its updated guidance, Aussie Broadband is now strongly positioning itself as a mid-tier telecom challenger.
A combination of infrastructure ownership, strategic partnerships, and disciplined growth creates a strong investment case for the company.
The fibre rollout and the Optus deal could accelerate its market share gains. Rising Capex, while higher than expected, is aimed at future-proofing the business.
Investors will monitor the execution risks in scaling fibre and mobile services and competitive pressures from larger incumbents.
The reinforced outlook, dividend declarations, and long-term revenue targets attest to resilience and ambition.
Focusing on diversification and operational efficiency improves visibility toward sustainable earnings growth.
