ASX bank stocks buy, sell, or hold trends are changing following a bearish trend in the sector over the past month, as geopolitical tensions, conflict in the Middle East, rising fuel prices, and interest rates led to fear of a broader economic slowdown.
The Reserve Bank has increased the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, the second consecutive rate hike in 2026, in the face of ongoing inflation and a tight labour market.
Analysts are now anticipating another rise in May, which could have further consequences for borrowing costs and for banking profits.
Rising interest rates and global tensions weigh on ASX bank stocks. [Courtesy: ABC News]
How Are Major ASX Bank Stocks Performing Now?
ASX bank stocks are experiencing mixed short-term gains despite broader monthly declines, reflecting the ongoing volatility and caution in the markets.
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA): Up 1% to $172.86; down 3% for the month
- Westpac Banking Corp(WBC): Up 1.3% to $40.25; down 6.2% month
- National Australia Bank (NAB): Up 1.4% to $40.31; down 11.8% in the month
- ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ): Up 1.3% to $36.93; down 7% for the month
Outside of the major lenders, smaller banks also saw small gains in the day but saw weaker trends by month:
- Macquarie Group (MQG): Up 1.9% to $198.71; down 4% on the month
- Bank of Queensland (BOQ): Up 1% to $6.83; down 2% for the month
- Bendigo and Adelaide Bank(BEN): Up 0.6% to $10.11; down 6.5% month on month
- Judo Capital Holdings (JDO): +0.3% to $1.48; -14% for the month
Judo And Macquarie Lead Buy Ratings Among Banks
Analysts pick out selective opportunities within ASX bank stocks, buy, sell, or hold strategies – some of the most favoured stocks identified by analysts, such as Judo Capital Holdings.
It has been identified as the most favourite stock based on strong buy ratings and an average target of $2.25, representing a 51% upside, but some analysts are projecting potential gains of up to 68% to $2.50 per share.
Macquarie Group is also attracting positive sentiment, with most analysts putting buy or strong buy ratings on the share, and an average target price of $238.28 that implies a 21% upside.
Judo and Macquarie stand out with strong buy ratings. [Courtesy: iTNews]
Which ASX Bank Stocks Are Considered A Hold?
Several ASX bank stocks are currently rated as holds, reflecting guarded analyst sentiment and limited near-term upside potential.
- National Australia Bank (NAB): Target price is $43.90; implies downside of 1.88%
- ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ): Target price $35.56; implies downside of 0.3%
- Bank of Queensland (BOQ): Target price $6.37; implies downside 6.5%
- Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN): Target price $10.41; implies an upside of 3%
Why Are Some Major Bank Stocks Rated As Sell?
Some major lenders are experiencing negative sentiment in bank stocks buy, sell, or hold decisions, especially Commonwealth Bank, which is seeing analysts consider it to be overpriced relative to fundamentals, with an average target price of $133.85 indicating a 23% downside over the next 12 months.
Westpac, too, has cautious opinions, with sell ratings from most analysts and an 8% downside to $40.35 in the next few years, as growth opportunities for the company are limited.
Analysts warn of downside risks for major bank stocks. [Courtesy: Startup Urban]
What Should Investors Watch In The Coming Months?
Investors looking to invest in stocks should watch the movements of interest rates, inflation trends, and economic growth signals, as these factors will shape the level of lending activity and profitability across the sector, whilst further increases in interest rates could get under the skin of borrowers and elevate the risk of defaults.
Market participants are also keeping an eye on developments around the world, as geopolitical uncertainty continues to make an impact on investor sentiment and capital flows.
Also Read: AI in Australian Financial Services: ASX Banks Adopting New Tech
FAQs
Q1. What caused the recent decline in ASX bank stocks?
A1: Geopolitical tensions, rising fuel prices, and higher interest rates triggered concerns about an economic slowdown.
Q2. Which ASX bank stock has the highest upside potential?
A2: Judo Capital Holdings shows the highest upside with a 51% target price increase.
Q3. Why are some bank stocks rated as sell?
A3: Some stocks like CBA are considered overpriced relative to their fundamentals.
Q4. Are ASX bank stocks suitable for income investors?
A4: Yes, many investors favour them for dividend stability despite market volatility.
Disclaimer
This article is based on publicly available information and analyst opinions and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should independently verify all data and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions. Market conditions, interest rates, and company performance may change rapidly, affecting projections and outcomes related to ASX bank stocks and their future valuation.
Sources
- https://www.fool.com.au/2026/03/25/asx-bank-stocks-buy-sell-or-hold-2/
- https://www.fool.com.au/2026/03/19/rates-are-rising-are-australias-biggest-bank-shares-still-worth-buying/
- https://www.fool.com.au/2026/02/19/are-asx-bank-stocks-back-in-favour-after-earnings-season/
