Predictive Discovery and Robex Resources have announced a merger that could reshape West Africa’s gold sector. The deal creates a combined entity valued at $3.6 billion with projected annual production exceeding 400,000 ounces by 2029.
The announcement sent Predictive Discovery shares soaring 13% to 50 cents, reflecting strong market confidence in the deal’s strategic logic.
The Predictive Discovery and Robex Deal Structure
The Predictive Discovery Robex merger follows a statutory plan of arrangement under Quebec’s Business Corporations Act. Robex shareholders will receive 8.667 Predictive Discovery shares for each Robex share they hold.
Predictive Discovery expects to issue roughly 2.1 billion shares to Robex shareholders, with potential for another 497 million shares from convertible securities. After completion, existing Predictive Discovery shareholders will own 51% of the combined company, while former Robex shareholders hold 49%.
The transaction requires approval from at least 66⅔% of Robex shareholders voting at a special meeting scheduled for December 2025.
What This Creates
The combined company brings together three operating and development assets.
- Bankan Project (Guinea): Predictive Discovery’s flagship development targeting 250,000 ounces annually over 12 years
- Kiniero Project (Guinea): Robex’s construction-stage project scheduled for first gold production in December 2025, targeting 139,000 ounces yearly
- Nampala Mine (Mali): Robex’s existing operation forecast to produce 46-47,000 ounces in 2025
Total mineral resources sit at roughly 9.5 million ounces, with ore reserves of 4.5 million ounces. The projects sit within 30km of each other in Guinea, creating what the companies call a “tier-1 mining hub.”
Why Guinea, Why Now
Guinea produced 63 million tonnes of gold in 2024, according to industry data. The country benefits from rich deposits in the Birimian Greenstone Belt, which has yielded over 95 million ounces of gold discoveries since 2004.
West Africa’s gold production is projected to reach 11.83 million ounces in 2024, marking a 2.6% increase from 2023. Perseus Mining, another ASX-listed producer with West African operations, demonstrates the region’s appeal to Australian investors.
The region’s political environment varies. Mali faces ongoing security concerns that have prompted Robex to focus on Guinea. Burkina Faso’s recent nationalization moves have unsettled foreign miners. Guinea’s $15 billion Simandou iron ore project led by Rio Tinto signals growing investor confidence in the country’s legal framework.
Management and Leadership
Andrew Pardey, currently Predictive Discovery’s CEO, will become non-executive chairman of the merged entity. Matthew Wilcox, Robex’s current CEO, takes the chief executive role.
Matthew Wilcox, CEO, Robex Resources
Wilcox brings substantial West African experience. He previously led construction of Tietto’s Abujar mine in Côte d’Ivoire before the company’s acquisition by Zijin Mining. Earlier, he oversaw West African Resources’ Sanbrado mine in Burkina Faso.
“This combination marks a transformative step for both companies,” Wilcox said in the announcement. “We’re creating a platform with the scale, assets and capability to deliver long-term value.”
Financial Backing and Timeline
Major shareholders have lined up behind the deal. The Cohen Group and Eglinton Mining, holding 25.2% of Robex shares collectively, signed voting support agreements. All Robex directors and senior management also committed to voting yes.
Canaccord Genuity and Cormark Securities provided fairness opinions to Robex’s board. BMO Capital Markets and SCP Resource Finance advised Predictive Discovery.
The merged company will maintain its ASX listing and apply for a TSX Venture Exchange listing. No Predictive Discovery shareholder vote is required.
The ASX has granted necessary listing rule waivers. Completion is expected by early 2026, subject to court, exchange and shareholder approvals.
Market Context
Gold prices have surged 26% in the first half of 2025, hitting record highs above $5,200 per ounce. Central bank purchases reached 244 tonnes in the first quarter, maintaining momentum from 2024’s record buying.
West Africa has emerged as one of the world’s most dynamic gold regions. The Mining Forum Americas 2025 highlighted how West African projects move from permit to production faster than in the Americas, with output rising 127% since 2010.
Industry consolidation has accelerated across West Africa. Total merger and acquisition value reached over $6.1 billion in 2024, compared to $460 million in 2023.
What Investors Should Watch
The deal faces several execution risks. Bankan’s final investment decision is targeted for the second quarter of 2026. Kiniero must meet its December 2025 production deadline. Integration of two corporate cultures and operational systems requires careful management.
However, the strategic rationale appears solid. Proximity creates potential synergies in procurement, workforce deployment and infrastructure sharing. Robex’s existing cash flows from Kiniero can help fund Bankan’s development, reducing financing risk.
The combined company’s scale may support inclusion in the ASX 200 and VanEck Junior Gold Miners indices, potentially broadening investor interest.
Also Read: Why the Aussie Dollar vs British Pound Battle Could Define 2025 Forex Markets
FAQs
Q: What is the exchange ratio for the Predictive Discovery Robex merger?
A: Robex shareholders will receive 8.667 Predictive Discovery shares for each Robex share they own.
Q: When will the merger complete?
A: The companies expect completion by December 2025 or early 2026, pending court, exchange and shareholder approvals.
Q: Where are the merged company’s assets located?
A: The main projects are in Guinea (Bankan and Kiniero) and Mali (Nampala), with Bankan and Kiniero sitting within 30km of each other.
Q: How much gold will the combined company produce?
A: Production is expected to exceed 400,000 ounces annually by 2029, with total mineral resources of 9.5 million ounces.
Q: Do Predictive Discovery shareholders need to vote?
A: No shareholder vote is required from Predictive Discovery shareholders. Only Robex shareholders vote on the transaction.
Q: What is the implied market capitalization?
A: The combined company has an estimated market capitalization of $3.6 billion ($2,350 million on a fully diluted basis as announced).
