Australians planning outdoor Christmas celebrations can breathe easier. Most capital cities are set for warm, sunny conditions on 25 December 2025.
But three cities should keep umbrellas handy.
Early forecasts from Weatherzone and the Bureau of Meteorology indicate predominantly dry weather across the country. Temperatures will climb into the mid-20s to low-30s for most capitals.
However, Sydney, Darwin, and potentially Canberra could see showers or thunderstorms on the big day.
Sydney’s Christmas Day Weather: Warm with Storm Risk
Sydney faces a maximum temperature around 28°C with showers on the forecast. Computer models suggest potential thunderstorms on 25 December.
Sydney’s Christmas Day Weather Forecast Revealed
The humid conditions will make it feel warmer than the actual temperature. Sydneysiders should plan morning activities outdoors and have backup options for the afternoon.
Key details for Sydney:
- Maximum temperature: 28°C
- Conditions: Warm and humid with possible showers
- Thunderstorm risk: Moderate to high in late afternoon
- UV index: Extreme
Early outlooks point to mid-to-high 20s temperatures with potential afternoon sea breezes around 3pm along coastal areas.
Melbourne Set for Dry, Sunny Christmas
Melbourne residents can expect dry conditions for most or all of Christmas Day, with temperatures climbing to the mid-20s under mostly sunny skies.
This represents ideal weather for beach trips and outdoor gatherings.
Melbourne forecast:
- Maximum temperature: Mid-20s
- Conditions: Mostly sunny and dry
- Rain chance: Low
- Cool change: Possible late afternoon from Bass Strait
The city’s notorious weather swings mean conditions could shift quickly. Warm to hot conditions through the morning may give way to a sharp afternoon cool change.
Brisbane Delivers Classic Sunshine State Christmas
Brisbane is expected to be warm and mostly sunny, with east to southeasterly winds keeping temperatures in the high 20s to low 30s throughout the day.
Morning showers may clear to reveal bright conditions perfect for outdoor festivities.
Brisbane Christmas outlook:
- Temperature range: High 20s to low 30s
- Conditions: Warm and mostly sunny
- Winds: East to southeasterly
- Morning showers: Possible but clearing
Perth Promises Perfect Christmas Weather
Western Australia’s capital is looking warm, dry and mostly sunny, heading for a maximum temperature in the low 30s.
Perth typically delivers reliable Christmas weather. This year appears no different.
Perth forecast highlights:
- Maximum temperature: Low 30s
- Conditions: Warm, dry, mostly sunny
- Rain chance: Minimal
- Ideal for: Beach activities and outdoor dining
Adelaide Expects Hot, Dry Conditions
Adelaide should be dry with a top temperature around 28°C. Some cloud cover may develop but rain remains unlikely.
The South Australian capital continues its reputation for hot summer Christmas days.
Canberra Warns of Possible Storms
Canberra is currently looking warm on Christmas Day, possibly reaching around 30°C in the afternoon. This warmth may trigger showers or storms around the ACT.
The nation’s capital sits on the fence between clear and stormy conditions.
Canberra Christmas forecast:
- Maximum temperature: Around 30°C
- Storm risk: Moderate
- Conditions: Warm with possible afternoon showers
- Backyard cricket: Proceed with caution
Hobart Offers Cool Relief
Hobart may see some cloud this Christmas, but the current forecast is looking dry for most of the day with a maximum temperature in the low-20s.
This represents the coolest Christmas weather among Australian capitals.
Hobart details:
- Maximum temperature: Low 20s
- Conditions: Cloudy but dry
- Perfect for: Outdoor lunches without excessive heat
- Rain probability: Low
Darwin Braces for Wet Season Storms
Darwin will be warm, with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. This forecast aligns with typical wet season conditions.
Locals expect this weather pattern during December. Temperature should reach 33°C but feel more like 40°C, making the expected afternoon thunderstorm a much-needed relief.
Darwin Christmas conditions:
- Maximum temperature: 33°C (feels like 40°C)
- Humidity: Very high
- Thunderstorms: Likely in afternoon
- Wet season: In full force
Understanding Long-Range Forecasts
Weather predictions two weeks ahead carry moderate confidence levels. Predictions for days 1 to 3 ahead have the highest confidence, days 4 to 7 have moderate confidence and days 8 to 14 have lower confidence.
Australians should check updated forecasts regularly as Christmas approaches. Conditions may change as new model data becomes available.
The Bureau of Meteorology releases specific day-by-day forecasts one week ahead. Current outlooks represent general guides rather than explicit predictions.
Aussie Cities to experience a warm Christmas
Climate Patterns Shaping Summer 2025
Since July 2024, sea surface temperatures in the Australian region have been the warmest or second warmest on record for each respective month.
A La Niña is underway in the tropical Pacific, which typically brings wetter conditions to northern and eastern Australia.
However, meteorologists suggest this version is weak and short-lived, favouring sun-washed mornings and hazy, warm afternoons with only occasional isolated storms.
Key climate factors:
- La Niña pattern: Weak and short-lived
- Sea surface temperatures: Above average
- Rainfall: Above average in northern Australia
- Daytime temperatures: Above average nationwide
- Overnight temperatures: Above average nationwide
Planning Your Christmas Day
Weather conditions will vary significantly across Australia’s capitals. Most cities favour outdoor celebrations.
Sydney, Darwin, and potentially Canberra residents should prepare backup plans for indoor activities. Melbourne’s unpredictable weather patterns suggest keeping options flexible.
Perth, Adelaide, Brisbane, and Hobart offer the most reliable conditions for all-day outdoor festivities.
Practical tips:
- Check forecasts daily leading up to Christmas
- Prepare both sun protection and rain cover
- Plan morning activities in potentially stormy cities
- Keep outdoor furniture secured in storm-risk areas
- Monitor Bureau of Meteorology warnings
Also Read: Beloved ‘Pulp Fiction’ Villain Peter Greene Dies Unexpectedly at 60 in Manhattan Home
FAQs
Q: Will it rain on Christmas Day in Sydney?
A: Early forecasts indicate showers are likely in Sydney on Christmas Day 2025, with temperatures around 28°C. Thunderstorms may develop in the late afternoon.
Q: What will the temperature be on Christmas Day in Melbourne?
A: Melbourne expects mid-20s temperatures with mostly sunny and dry conditions. A possible cool change may arrive in the late afternoon.
Q: Which Australian capital will have the hottest Christmas Day?
A: Darwin and Perth are forecast to experience the hottest conditions, with temperatures in the low to mid-30s. Darwin will feel hotter due to extreme humidity.
Q: Is Christmas Day 2025 expected to be wetter than normal?
A: Most capitals expect dry conditions. However, Sydney, Darwin, and Canberra face higher chances of showers or storms compared to other cities.
Q: When will the final Christmas Day forecast be available?
A: The Bureau of Meteorology releases concrete day-by-day forecasts approximately one week before the date. Current forecasts represent general outlooks that may change.
