Treasury Wine Estates shares jumped 7% on Christmas Eve after French billionaire Olivier Goudet emerged as a major shareholder in Australia’s embattled Penfolds owner. The move comes as the winemaker battles its worst year in a decade.
Goudet, through his Luxembourg-based investment vehicle Platin SARL, has accumulated a 5.05% stake worth approximately $244 million. The buying spree began in early October, just days before Treasury Wine downgraded its earnings guidance.
The timing raises questions. Was Goudet buying into weakness, or does he see value others have missed?
Who Is Olivier Goudet and Why Does His Investment Matter?
Olivier Goudet isn’t just another wealthy investor. The 60-year-old French businessman built his reputation transforming consumer brands at JAB Holdings, the German investment firm controlling Krispy Kreme, Panera Bread, and Pret A Manger.
Olivier Goudet, Former CEO, JAB Holding Company S.à r.l.
His investment track record speaks volumes:
- Former CFO of Mars, where he worked for nearly two decades
- Led JAB Holdings from $9 billion to $50 billion in assets under management
- Current board member of Keurig Dr Pepper and JDE Peet’s
- Adviser to JAB after stepping down as CEO in November 2023
Goudet’s Platin SARL vehicle also holds stakes in Swedish food group Oatly. His investment approach focuses on consumer brands with global reach, making Treasury Wines a logical target despite its current struggles.
Market watchers have linked the stake-building to potential longer-term interest from JAB Holdings, though Goudet’s intentions remain undisclosed.
The Stake-Building Timeline: Buying Into the Storm
Goudet’s first purchase came on 7 October 2024, when he bought 598,253 shares at $6.88 each for $4.1 million. Days later, Treasury Wine shocked the market by withdrawing its fiscal 2026 earnings guidance.
The announcement triggered a sharp sell-off, with shares plunging more than 15% to decade lows. Rather than retreating, Goudet doubled down.
On 13 October, the same day as the downgrade, Platin made its largest single-day purchase, spending $16.1 million on 2.6 million shares. The buying continued steadily through subsequent weeks as the stock remained under pressure.
By late December, Goudet controlled 41 million shares, representing 5.05% of Treasury Wine. At Tuesday’s close of $5.01, the position was worth $205.4 million. Following news of the stake, shares jumped to $5.37, adding roughly $39 million to the paper value of Goudet’s holdings.
Treasury Wines’ Perfect Storm: China, US, and Penfolds
The Penfolds owner faces significant headwinds across its two largest markets. In China, parallel import activity has disrupted pricing for the flagship Penfolds brand. The company plans to restrict shipments contributing to these grey market flows over the next two years.
Chinese distributor inventories are being cut by 400,000 cases, worth approximately $215 million in net sales revenue. The reduction aims to protect brand integrity but will weigh heavily on near-term earnings.
The US market presents different challenges. Distributor RNDC’s exit from California in September has created disruption across Treasury Americas. The company appointed Breakthru Beverage Group as its replacement, but the transition hasn’t been smooth.
First-half earnings are now forecast at $225 million to $235 million—more than 30% below analyst expectations. Luxury wine demand in California has declined 2.4%, while Treasury Americas depletions are down 4.6% year-to-date.
New CEO Sam Fischer, who joined in October, has launched the TWE Ascent transformation programme targeting $100 million in annual cost savings. The company has also cancelled its $200 million share buyback and is reviewing dividend payouts.
Share Price Performance: A Decade-Low Valuation
Treasury Wine shares have collapsed 55% in 2025, wiping out billions in market value. The stock last traded this low in mid-2015.
Current trading metrics paint a challenging picture:
- Current price: $5.37 (as of 24 December 2025)
- 52-week range: $5.45 to $11.82
- Market capitalisation: $4.3 billion
- Year-to-date decline: 55%
The sharp decline has caught the attention of analysts. Jefferies downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold, slashing its price target from $8.00 to $5.20. The broker acknowledged the new CEO’s actions to address inventory issues but warned the earnings drag could last two years.
Morgan Stanley and UBS have also trimmed their outlooks, citing prolonged weakness in key markets and distributor disruptions.
Investor Outlook: Contrarian Bet or Catching a Falling Knife?
Goudet’s stake purchase represents a contrarian bet on one of the ASX’s worst performers this year. The question facing investors is whether the billionaire sees value others have missed or is underestimating the challenges ahead.
Several factors support a recovery thesis. Treasury Wine owns iconic brands including Penfolds, which commands premium pricing globally. The company’s supply chain infrastructure is world-class. Management’s cost-cutting programme could restore margins once market conditions stabilise.
The counter-argument centres on structural headwinds. Chinese luxury spending remains weak amid economic uncertainty. US distributor issues could take years to resolve fully. The inventory reduction strategy sacrifices near-term revenue for longer-term brand health.
For ASX investors seeking value in beaten-down stocks, Treasury Wine presents a high-risk, high-reward scenario. Goudet’s involvement adds credibility, but even billionaires make mistakes.
The coming months will be critical. If Fischer’s transformation programme gains traction and market conditions improve, today’s price could prove a bargain. If challenges persist, further downside remains possible.
One thing is certain: Olivier Goudet doesn’t invest $244 million on a whim. His consumer brand expertise and patient capital approach suggest he’s playing the long game.
For now, Treasury Wine shareholders have found an unexpected ally in one of Europe’s most successful investors.
Also Read: US Economy Grows 4.3% in Q3 as Trump Ties Tariffs to Growth
FAQs
Q: Who is Olivier Goudet and why is he buying Treasury Wines?
A: Olivier Goudet is a French billionaire and former CEO of JAB Holdings, a German investment firm. He has built a 5.05% stake in Treasury Wine Estates through his investment vehicle Platin SARL, suggesting he sees long-term value in the beaten-down Penfolds owner despite current market challenges.
Q: How much has Treasury Wine’s share price fallen?
A: Treasury Wine Estates shares have declined 55% in 2025, trading near decade lows of around $5.37. The stock has fallen from a 52-week high of $11.82 amid earnings downgrades and market concerns about China and US operations.
Q: What challenges is Treasury Wine facing?
A: The company faces multiple headwinds including parallel import disruption in China affecting Penfolds pricing, US distributor transitions in California, weak luxury wine demand, and excess inventory that will take two years to normalise. First-half earnings are expected to fall more than 30% below analyst forecasts.
Q: Is Treasury Wine still paying dividends?
A: Treasury Wine has paid dividends every year since its 2011 ASX listing. However, the company is currently reviewing its dividend payout ratio as part of CEO Sam Fischer’s transformation programme. Investors should monitor announcements for potential changes to dividend policy.
