Western Australians head to the polls today in an election expected to deliver another Labor victory. Analysts predict the key contest will be how much ground the Liberal Party can regain.
Labor’s Expected Win
Premier Roger Cook is set to secure a third term for Labor. Polls indicate strong public support for Cook, with a 55% approval rating compared to Liberal leader Libby Mettam’s 43%. The latest Newspoll shows Cook leading 47%-32% as the preferred premier, with 21% undecided.
Figure 1: Premier Roger Cook set to secure a third term for Labor [ABC News:Cason Ho]
Labor won a landslide in 2021, leaving the Liberals with just two seats and the Nationals as the official opposition. This election is expected to reduce Labor’s dominance but not threaten its majority. The focus now shifts to whether the Liberals can rebuild their voter base.
Liberals’ Challenge
Mettam’s Liberals need to make significant gains to be competitive in future elections. Analysts expect a 13% swing against Labor, which could give the Liberals about 11 extra seats. That would bring them closer to their 2017 position when they held 13 seats.
Figure 2: Libby Mettam has campaigned tirelessly in the lead up to the election. [ABC News:Grace Burmas]
University of Notre Dame’s Martin Drum says this would be a step toward competitiveness. He predicts the Liberals will regain seats in Perth’s metro area and key regional districts. If the swing is greater than expected, the Liberals may exceed these projections.
Nationals Face a Different Battle
The Nationals currently hold five seats in the lower house, making them the official opposition. However, a reformed voting system for the upper house will likely reduce their influence.
Previously, rural votes carried more weight, benefitting the Nationals. Political analyst William Bowe expects them to finish with just one or two lower house seats. This shift could reshape WA’s political dynamics.
Key Contests in the Election
The Liberals must win seats like Churchlands and Nedlands to improve their position. Perth Lord Mayor Basil Zempilas, contesting Churchlands, is considered a strong candidate.
Regional contests in Albany, Blackwood, and Kalgoorlie will also shape the outcome. The Liberals hope to gain Scarborough and South Perth if the swing reaches 15%. These seats will be closely watched as results come in.
Voter Turnout and Election Process
Voting is compulsory in Australia, with fines for non-compliance. More than 558,000 early votes have already been cast. Polling places open from 8 am to 6 pm, with vote counting starting immediately after.
Figure 3: Voting closes at 6pm on Saturday. [ABC News:Ruby Littler]
ABC’s election analyst Antony Green expects a slower result than 2021 due to high early voting numbers. The final outcome may not be known immediately.
Key Issues Shaping the Campaign
Cost-of-living pressures and housing affordability have dominated the campaign. Health, climate action, and support for WA’s mining and agricultural industries are also major concerns.
WA’s housing crisis has led to more than 20 election commitments, but experts warn they may not solve the core issues. Voters remain focused on practical solutions rather than political promises.
Family and domestic violence policies gained attention after a high-profile double homicide in Floreat. All major parties have made commitments to improving support services.
Changing Political Trends
WA’s political landscape is shifting. Bowe notes that affluent tradies now lean towards the Liberals, while Labor appeals more to tertiary-educated voters.
The rise of independents and minor parties reflects voter dissatisfaction with traditional major-party structures. The Greens are expected to gain seats in the upper house, along with parties like Animal Justice and Legalise Cannabis. This could affect future policy directions.
Federal Election Timeline
A federal election must take place by May 17. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese ruled out an April poll, leaving May 3, 10, or 17 as the likely dates. Speculation continues on which date he will choose.
Election Night Expectations
Experts predict another Labor victory, but the focus will be on the Liberals’ performance. If they regain key seats, they may position themselves for a stronger showing in 2029. A significant Liberal recovery could reshape WA’s political future.
