Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE) has reached a settlement agreement with Republic National Distributing Company following the distributor’s California exit. The Treasury Wine Estates settlement resolves issues stemming from RNDC’s decision to close operations in the state during September 2025.
Figure 1: Treasury Wine Estates corporate logo. [Source: Wikipedia]
The Company announced on 10 February 2026 that it expects the first half of FY2026 EBITS of approximately $236 million. This exceeds the $225 million to $235 million guidance range provided on 17 December 2025.
Treasury Wine Estates Settlement Terms With California Distributor
The Treasury Wine settlement agreement involves repurchasing inventory held by RNDC in California. Treasury Wine will buy back the Treasury Americas and Treasury Collective portfolio inventory for the original sale value. This amount will be net of a confidential settlement compensating the Company for RNDC’s closure impact.
Taking into account the expected on-sale of this inventory to other customers commencing this half, the net cash outflow is anticipated. The Company expects a net cash outflow of approximately US$65 million in the second half of FY2026 relating to this settlement agreement.
Treasury Wine Estates Share Price Supported by Earnings Upgrade
Treasury Wine Estates share price received support following the announcement of improved earnings guidance. The Company now expects first half FY2026 EBITS of approximately $236 million. This figure exceeds the previously provided guidance range of $225 million to $235 million announced on 17 December 2025.
Figure 2: Selection of Treasury Wine Estates’ premium wine brands distributed across major global markets. [Source: Treasury Wine Estates]
The EBITS expectation is subject to finalisation of the auditor review. Treasury Wine Estates will provide more detailed information as part of its 2026 interim results update on 16 February 2026.
Treasury Wine Estates Outlook Maintains RNDC Partnership
The Treasury Wine Estates outlook maintains its partnership with RNDC across several other US markets. The Company expressed support for RNDC’s recent initiatives to strengthen its business model and capital structure. These initiatives include the planned divestment of several markets to Reyes Beverage Group.
RNDC is also establishing new financing arrangements to improve its operational position. In the first half of FY2026, Treasury Americas depletions in states distributed by RNDC grew 2.7 per cent. Following planned divestments, RNDC distribution arrangements are expected to comprise less than 20 per cent of Treasury Americas’ net sales revenue.
Impact of California Closure on Treasury Wine Estates Performance
Treasury Wine Estates CEO Sam Fischer acknowledged the California closure’s impact on performance. “Although RNDC’s decision to exit the Californian market had a significant impact on our performance in 1H26, we are pleased to have reached this resolution,” Fischer stated.
Figure 3: RNDC (Republic National Distributing Company) logo, the US-based distributor involved in the California distribution settlement. [Source: The Spirits Business]
The Company continues to partner with RNDC as a committed and high-performing distributor across other US markets. The settlement does not alter the planned reduction of distributor inventory levels outside California. This inventory reduction will occur over approximately two years, as disclosed on 17 December 2025.
Net Cash Outflow Details From Treasury Wine Estates Settlement
Relative to the $100 million figure of Treasury Americas’ inventory held by RNDC in California, first disclosed on 13 October 2025, the calculation has been refined. The net cash outflow of approximately US$65 million in the second half of FY2026 includes the remaining Treasury Collective inventory value.
This amount is net of the confidential settlement benefit and proceeds from selling some inventory in the second half. The Company expects to commence the on-sale of repurchased inventory to other customers during the current half-year.
Treasury Wine Estates Share Price and Market Performance
Treasury Wine Estates shares last traded at $5.41 on the Australian Securities Exchange. The Company has a market capitalisation of $4.17 billion. The 52-week range for the Treasury Wine Estates share price is $4.57 to $11.27 per share.
Figure 4: Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE) share price performance over the past year following operational and earnings updates. [Source: Australian Securities Exchange]
About Treasury Wine Estates
Treasury Wine Estates is a global wine company headquartered in Melbourne, Australia. The Company’s portfolio includes premium wine brands distributed across major markets worldwide. Treasury Wine operates vineyards and production facilities across multiple wine-growing regions.
What Happens Next for Treasury Wine Estates
Treasury Wine will release its 2026 interim results on 16 February 2026. Investors will receive detailed information about the first half performance, including the California settlement impact. The Company will also provide updates on distribution arrangements and inventory management strategies.
The Treasury Wine Estates outlook for the full year will be clarified during the results presentation. Management commentary on US market conditions and distribution partnerships will be closely watched by analysts and shareholders.
Final Thoughts
The Treasury Wine settlement with RNDC removes a significant uncertainty that has weighed on the Company’s US operations. The improved EBITS guidance demonstrates resilience despite distributor disruption in California during the first half.
Treasury Wine Estates share price performance will depend on the successful implementation of alternative California distribution arrangements. The Company’s ability to maintain momentum in other RNDC-serviced markets while managing inventory levels will be critical to full-year results.
FAQs
Q1. What is the Treasury Wine Estates settlement with RNDC about?
Ans. Treasury Wine Estates reached a settlement agreement with Republic National Distributing Company following RNDC’s exit from California in September 2025. The Company will repurchase inventory for the original sale value net of a confidential settlement amount.
Q2. What is the expected cash outflow from the Treasury Wine Estates settlement?
Ans. The net cash outflow in the second half of FY2026 relating to the settlement agreement is expected to be approximately US$65 million. This is net of confidential settlement benefits and proceeds from inventory on-sale.
Q3. How has Treasury Wine Estates outlook improved?
Ans. Treasury Wine Estates outlook now expects the first half of FY2026 EBITS of approximately $236 million. This exceeds the previous guidance range of $225 million to $235 million provided on 17 December 2025.
Q4. Will Treasury Wine Estates continue working with RNDC?
Ans. Yes. Treasury Wine Estates will continue partnering with RNDC across several other US markets. Treasury Americas depletions in RNDC-distributed states grew 2.7 per cent in first half of FY2026.
