Neuren Pharmaceuticals reacted to an ASX aware letter after its Daybue global sales projections announcement, which was of a price-sensitive nature. The inquiry from the ASX was whether the investors got the material information in time according to Listing Rule 3.1.
Neuren confirmed that the only product revenue source for them is royalties and milestone payments from Acadia. Thus, the sales forecast directly bears on the valuation and mood of the traders for the shareholders. Neuren clarified that the global development and commercialisation of Daybue is being handled by Acadia Pharmaceuticals.
The drug got FDA approval and was launched in the United States in 2023. Neuren’s royalties are based on all net sales, and the company also gets milestone payments that are linked to specific commercial events. These commercial terms were discussed in the investor materials issued on 10 November 2025.
Neuren addressed ASX inquiry on timely Daybue disclosure. [AFR]
Why Did Neuren Consider The Information Price Sensitive?
Neuren asserted that a rational person might assume the information would be a major factor in determining the price or value of the company’s securities. On the part of Acadia, the expected Daybue global net sales in 2028 were set approximately at US$700 million.
Such a projection indicates a great leap forward compared to the US$385 million to US$400 million range opened for 2025. Neuren had earlier thought royalties would be between A$63 million and A$66 million for 2025 based on this guidance.
There is a straight line drawn from this scale of growth through Neuren’s forward revenue outlook to its royalty stream. Investors generally are very responsive to the clarity of revenue trajectory in the case of emerging biotechnology markets.
How Quickly Did Neuren Disclose The Information?
Acadia unveiled its projection at 1:00 am AEDT on January 14 and later that morning at a healthcare conference again referred to it. Acadia notified Neuren via email alert about 15 minutes before the release; however, the email went unread overnight.
Neuren found out the information around 8:00 am AEDT via international news alerts. Neuren verification started internally right away. The management went through Acadia’s announcement, presentation materials, recorded conference commentary, analyst forecasts, and internal financial models.
The CEO reviewed the draft announcement before securing Board approval. The Board approved the release at 10:09 am. The announcement was filed at 10:20 am, and at 10:26 am it was made public.
Management reviewed Acadia materials, forecasts, and models, then the CEO reviewed the draft before Board approval. [Neuren Pharmaceuticals]
Neuren Confirms Reasonable Grounds For 2028 Projection
Neuren validated it had reasonable grounds to make known the projected ~US$700 million 2028 sales outlook. The company based its claim on Acadia disclosures regulated by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.
There were three main factors of growth identified. These were the launch of Daybue STIX approved in December 2025, an increase in US commercial teams since Q2 2025, and international expansion pending European approval with CHMP opinion expected in Q1 2026.
Neuren conducted analyst forecasts and internal financial modelling alignment verification. The company indicated that the factual foundation was so ample that it could satisfy the ASIC Regulatory Guide 170 requirements.
What Does This Mean For Neuren Pharmaceuticals Investors?
Developers of the project are presently being presented with a clearer and better understanding of the potential of the medium-term royalty and the operational scale. The royalty revenue is the only source of income for Neuren from products.
Sales growth is not only strengthening cash flow but also providing more capacity for the company to invest in clinical areas. The market’s reaction was positive and reflected in the share prices, which moved up from $19.61 to $21.04.
The sales forecast for Daybue in 2026 will be revealed when Acadia discloses its Q4 2025 results in February 2026. The regulatory decisions in Europe could also impact the timelines for market entry and the valuation models used.
Daybue 2026 forecast follows Acadia Q4 results, Europe rulings may affect timelines and valuations. [Daybue]
Neuren Maintains Full Compliance With ASX Listing Rules
Neuren has made it clear that it has been following the Listing Rules 3.1 and has been disclosing information continuously as required. The Board was in charge of responding to the ASX.
The company once again emphasised its commitment to transparency, governance, and effective communication with investors promptly. Under Listing Rule 18.7A, the correspondence could be made available to the public, supporting wider market accountability and building regulatory confidence.
Also Read: Neuren Pharmaceuticals Targets Major Revenue Milestone As DAYBUE Gains Momentum
FAQs
Q1: Why did the ASX issue an aware letter to Neuren?
A1: The ASX sought confirmation that material Daybue sales projections were disclosed promptly and supported by reasonable grounds.
Q2: What sales level is Daybue projected to reach in 2028?
A2: Global Daybue net sales are projected to reach approximately US$700 million in 2028.
Q3: How does Neuren generate revenue from Daybue?
A3: Neuren receives royalties on all net sales and milestone payments from Acadia.
Q4: When will the updated 2026 sales guidance be provided?
A4: Acadia expects to provide 2026 guidance when it releases Q4 2025 results in February 2026.
