The ASX 200 futures dropped 49 points or 0.56% this morning, reflecting a cautious overnight session. The Nasdaq closed 0.05% higher, the S&P 500 slipped 0.01%, and the Dow fell 0.32%.
ASX 200 chart as of 11:13 AM
Wall Street Punishes Misses Despite Solid Earnings
The US earnings season started strong, fuelled by firm consumer demand, healthy margins and rising profits. However, market reactions remained subdued. Bloomberg reported that financials beat estimates 94.4% of the time but saw little stock movement. High valuations have left companies with no room for error. Stocks missing estimates are facing the harshest penalties since 2022.
Netflix dropped 5.1% despite 16% revenue growth to US$11.08 billion and 46% earnings per share growth. U.S. and Canada revenue increased 15% due to price hikes. Netflix raised its 2025 forecast to US$44.8-45.2 billion.
American Express fell 2.3% despite surpassing earnings expectations. Expenses rose 14% to US$12.9 billion. CEO Steve Squeri said, “We saw record card member spending in the quarter”.
3M declined 3.6% after reporting adjusted earnings of US$2.16 per share on US$6.16 billion revenue. It raised full-year profit guidance, with tariffs expected to hurt less than earlier forecasts.
Block Rallies on S&P 500 Inclusion
Block shares surged 8.5% in after-hours trade after S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed its addition to the S&P 500. Hess will exit the index following Chevron’s US$54 billion acquisition. Block will be added before trading begins on 24 July.
Euroz Harley Approves $23m Capital Return
Euroz Harley shareholders voted to approve a $23 million special dividend capital return. This equates to 14 cents per share, yielding around 13.2% based on the Friday close of $1.055. The stock will trade ex-dividend on 5 August.
Fed’s Waller Backs July Rate Cut
Federal Reserve Governor Waller called for a 25 basis point cut to support slower growth. He said tariffs were temporary and not inflationary. Real GDP growth fell to 1% in 1H25, down from 2.8% in 2H24. Waller noted slower consumer spending and weak labour momentum. “Cutting in July gives the Fed flexibility,” he said.
Bruce Gordon Eyes Control of Nine
WIN Television owner Bruce Gordon may seek control of Nine Entertainment. His investment company, Birketu, now holds 25.22% economic and 19.98% voting interest in Nine. A full bid is possible, though creep provisions are more likely. Nine’s sale of its Domain stake for $4.43 per share could lower valuations, increasing takeover risk.
Regis Resources Hits FY25 Guidance Top End
Regis Resources posted FY25 production of 373,000 ounces, hitting the top end of guidance. The sector displays resilience just like it did with BHP’s copper growth. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) came in at A$2,531/oz, the lower end of forecasts. The company closed the year with $517 million in cash and bullion, reflecting a $222 million build after $300 million debt repayment.
FY26 guidance forecasts production of 350,000-380,000 ounces and AISC of A$2,610-2,990/oz. These levels are above Macquarie and Citi estimates.
Perenti Free Cash Flow to Smash Forecasts
Perenti expects FY25 free cash flow of $280 million, beating its own guidance of $150 million. You can also see other miners such as South32 delivering excellent FY25 results. Citi previously forecast $153 million, now representing an 86% beat. The firm credited asset sales, strong cash conversion, and reduced capex for the result. FY25 revenue remains guided at $3.4-3.6 billion, with EBITDA at $325-345 million.
Playside Misses Revenue Target
Playside missed FY25 guidance, with unaudited revenue between $48.5-49 million versus $50-54 million forecasted. It expects an EBITDA loss of $7.2-7.7 million, in line with guidance. Playside cited cancellations of smaller titles following an April restructure. Shares are down 52% year-to-date and 73% over twelve months.
Abacus Storage King Grants Due Diligence Access
Abacus Storage King granted due diligence access to Ki and Public Storage for six weeks. A previous $1.47 per share offer was rejected. A revised bid of $1.65 was submitted, marking a 15% increase. The company holds a pro-forma NTA of $1.73 per share.
Small Caps Halt for Capital Raises
IperionX and Meteoric Resources halted trading for capital raising announcements. IperionX has recovered from a 65% drawdown and is up 23.5% in the past month. Meteoric surged 24% over the month and 82% year-to-date. Meteoric highlighted its Caldeira Project as one of the largest ionic clay rare earths resources globally.
AMP Updates Cashflow and AUM
AMP reported Q2 platform net cashflows of $1.56 billion, up 63.2%. Total assets under management hit $153.9 billion. AMP Bank’s loan book stood at $23.5 billion with $20.5 billion in deposits. CEO Alexis George said, “We remain focused on the ongoing execution of our strategy”.
Mesoblast Analysts React to Ryoncil Debut
Mesoblast’s Ryoncil revenue aligned with expectations in its first full quarter. Shares rose 35% last Friday. Bell Potter raised its target from $3.40 to $3.50 citing strong uptake and Revascor momentum. Jefferies downgraded to Hold but lifted its target to $2.60. Analysts see continued reimbursement progress as key to future growth.
Sectorial Impact
Banking margins and consumer discretionary stocks may be greatly impacted by a change in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate policy. “Policymakers are keeping a close eye on the slowdown in retail sales and employment softness”, according to the minutes of the most recent Reserve Bank of Australia meeting.
