ASX 200 Slips as Wall Street Climbs to Records
The ASX 200 futures fell 60 points or 0.69% even as Wall Street’s S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs. The S&P 500 added a mere 0.02%, while the Equal-weight S&P 500 dropped 0.59%, pointing to narrow leadership. Tesla gained 3.0%, Nvidia advanced 1.8%, and Broadcom rose 1.4%, anchoring the gains.
ASX 200 chart as of 11:55 AM AEST
Mega-Cap Tech Results in Focus
This week, 38% of the S&P 500 will report quarterly earnings, up from 16% last week. Meta and Microsoft release results Wednesday after market close, while Apple and Amazon report Thursday. Market participants concentrate on AI-driven growth and cloud segment momentum. Meta expects solid ad revenue, buoyed by Alphabet’s performance, yet higher AI-related expenses draw investor attention. AI monetisation and advertising remain main themes.
Microsoft will highlight Azure’s performance, potentially benefitting from security and cloud migrations. Analysts expect AI tools to power about half of Azure’s 36% growth. Amazon’s AWS faces expectations for slight deceleration but analysts anticipate increasing AI demand could trigger reacceleration later in the year. Apple confronts tariff risks, challenges in AI, and competition in China. Some analysts see potential for AI-related capex increases or partnerships with players like Anthropic or Perplexity.
Mining: Monadelphous, Ora Banda, Sandfire and More
Monadelphous announced new contract wins topping $110 million. Projects include work at Rio Tinto’s Parker Point Stockyard and the Fitzroy to Gladstone Pipeline. The company extended its maintenance contract with Newmont’s Boddington and Tanami mines. Frequent contract wins rarely move its share price.
Ora Banda’s June quarter update confirmed previously released production of 92.4 thousand ounces for FY25, a miss versus 95 thousand ounce guidance. The company’s stock fell 9% on the announcement, near year-to-date lows. Ora Banda now holds $84.2 million in cash. It maintained FY26 production guidance of 140,000 to 155,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of A$2,800 to A$2,900 per ounce.
Sandfire reported 10% growth in copper output to 107.2 thousand tonnes, just shy of Citi estimates. Its copper equivalent output rose 12%. MATSA and Motheo unit costs declined sharply, capex matched consensus, and net debt fell 69% to $123 million. Group unaudited revenue reached $1.18 billion, 1.7% ahead of estimates, with adjusted EBITDA of $528 million. For FY26, Sandfire guided copper output to 102,000 to 114,000 tonnes and warned Motheo costs will rise 10%.
Capricorn Metals secured key regulatory approval for its Karlawinda Expansion Project. The expansion will increase gold output by 25% to 150,000 ounces annually, with site work underway. Analysts tip the project to hit its targeted run rate by FY27.
Perseus Mining achieved FY25 production at the top of guidance and lower-than-expected costs, driven by strong Yaouré output. Analysts remained positive despite softer FY26 guidance, with UBS lowering its price target to $4.15.
Mixed Results and Analyst Downgrades
Boss Energy shares plummeted 44% after management withdrew nameplate guidance for Honeymoon, citing operational challenges and higher costs. RBC cut its target to $2.75, citing leachability concerns and cost blowouts. JPMorgan kept an Overweight rating but dropped its target from $4.10 to $2.25.
Viva Energy gave a mixed update. First-half 2025 EBITDA will approximate $300 million, missing the $329 million consensus. Convenience sales dropped 10%, led by a 27% fall in tobacco due to packaging laws. Geelong refining margins slid to $8.2 per barrel.
Greatland Gold delivered FY25 gold production of 198.3 thousand asx ounces and lower costs, but flagged FY26 output of 260 to 310 thousand ounces, missing expectations by 12%, with higher costs than anticipated.
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Liontown and Lithium Sector Face Volatility
Liontown’s quarterly revenue fell 7.7% to $96 million, while asx spodumene shipments of 97.3 thousand dry metric tonnes beat forecasts. Unit costs and realised prices also came in ahead. Liontown guided FY26 production at 365,000 to 450,000 tonnes at costs of A$855 to A$1,045 per tonne, generally undercutting Goldman Sachs’ production expectations and beating on costs.
Chinese lithium carbonate futures sank 6.3% early Tuesday, compounding an 8% plunge Monday that halted trade. Despite futures weakening, Pilbara Minerals and Liontown shares held up, although the sector sold off earlier in the week.
Boss Energy continued its slide, dropping 7.9% after halving in value over two days. Liontown shares slipped 2.3% after its production report, echoing broader lithium sector softness with Pilbara down 1.5%.
Market Outlook
Despite records for key asx US indices, the market faces uneven breadth, asx mixed corporate results, and heightened volatility within resources and energy. The focus remains on asx mega-cap tech revenue, resource sector earnings, and the impacts of commodity price swings. The surge in US reporting, Australian corporate updates, and ongoing sectoral shifts set the stage for continued market scrutiny.
