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ASX Stock Outlook: Lovisa, Wesfarmers and Rio Tinto Compared

Three of Australia’s most closely watched ASX-listed companies have all released their latest financial results this week, giving investors a rare opportunity to compare performance across very different sectors. Lovisa Holdings (LOV), Wesfarmers (WES) and Rio Tinto (RIO) each tell a different story about consumer spending, retail diversification, and global commodities, but all three offer meaningful signals about where the Australian sharemarket sits heading into the second half of FY26.

Lovisa: Small Prices, Big Numbers

Lovisa continues to defy the retail gloom narrative with another standout half-year result. The fashion jewellery retailer reported total revenue of $500.7 million for the first half of FY26, up 23.3 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Underlying net profit after tax climbed 21.5 per cent to $69.6 million, driven largely by the company’s relentless global store rollout.

The company opened 85 new stores during the half, bringing its total network to 1,095 stores across more than 50 markets. Europe delivered the largest share of that growth, with 39 new stores opened, including 16 in the United Kingdom and 10 in Germany. The Americas also contributed strongly, with 18 new stores across the US and Canada.

Also Read: Lovisa Holdings Trading Update: 26.2% Sales Surge Drives FY26 Growth

What makes Lovisa’s result particularly impressive is its gross margin performance. The company pushed its underlying gross margin to 82.9 per cent, up 50 basis points on the prior half through tighter sourcing, better promotion efficiency and improved shrinkage management. That margin now sits 220 basis points higher than the same period in FY24.

The board declared an interim dividend of 53 cents per share, representing a full 100 per cent distribution of first-half reported earnings.

Figure 1: Lovisa Half Year 2026 Results Highlights [Lovisa]

Despite all this, Lovisa’s share price tells a more cautious story. At $26.21, the stock has fallen 13.07 per cent over the past year and is down 10.58 per cent year-to-date in 2026. The market appears to be pricing in some risk around the company’s Jewells brand launch, which contributed an EBIT loss of $10.8 million during the half, as well as broader concerns about consumer discretionary spending.

Early trading in the second half looks encouraging, with total sales for the first seven weeks up 21.5 per cent and comparable store sales up 1.6 per cent.

Figure 2: Lovisa Share’s ASX Performance Over the Past Year

Why Did Lovisa’s Share Start Falling on 19 February?

Lovisa Holdings shares fell sharply because investors focused on mounting losses from its Jewells acquisition rather than strong core performance. While half-year revenue rose 23.3% and underlying profit increased 21.5%, statutory profit grew only 2.6% after Jewells posted an $11.2 million loss. Revenue declines in Australia and New Zealand also raised saturation concerns. The sharp gap between underlying and statutory earnings heightened worries about profit quality and execution risk.

Wesfarmers: Steady as She Goes

Wesfarmers delivered a solid but unsurprising half-year result for the six months ended 31 December 2025. The Perth-based conglomerate reported statutory net profit after tax of $1.603 billion, up 9.3 per cent, with revenue growing 3.1 per cent to $24.2 billion.

Figure 3: Wesfarmers Results for the half-year ended 31 December 2025 [Wesfarmers]

The result leaned heavily on the company’s two biggest earners. Bunnings continued to drive growth across all product categories and customer segments, while Kmart Group benefited from the strong performance of its Anko private-label ranges. Together, these two divisions did the heavy lifting as other parts of the portfolio navigated choppier conditions.

Also Read: Wesfarmers Lifts Profit and Dividend on Strong Half-Year Earnings

Officeworks faced headwinds from costs associated with its transformation program, and Wesfarmers Industrial and Safety delivered broadly flat earnings after adjusting for the sale of Coregas. Wesfarmers Health showed improving momentum, with Priceline Pharmacy reporting solid network sales growth.

A standout from the result was Wesfarmers’ expanding use of artificial intelligence. The company struck new strategic partnerships with Microsoft and Google Cloud during the half, aiming to accelerate AI applications across agentic commerce, supply chain optimisation and contact centre efficiency.

The board lifted the interim dividend to $1.02 per share, fully franked, an increase of 7.4 per cent. The company also paid a capital management distribution of $1.50 per share during the half.

At $83.99, Wesfarmers shares have risen 8.21 per cent over the past year, outperforming the broader sector. The stock trades at a significant premium to book value, reflecting the market’s confidence in the quality of its portfolio.

Figure 4: The performance of Wesfarmers‘ share price on the ASX over the past 12 months.

Rio Tinto: Copper Shines While Iron Ore Fades

Rio Tinto posted full-year results for the 2025 calendar year that highlight both the strengths and the pressures facing the global miner. Consolidated sales revenue rose 7.4 per cent to US$57.6 billion, and underlying EBITDA climbed 9 per cent to US$25.4 billion. However, net earnings attributable to shareholders fell 13.7 per cent to US$10 billion, dragged lower by higher taxes, increased depreciation and costs associated with the Arcadium Lithium acquisition completed in March.

Figure 5: Rio Tinto’s 2025 full-year results summary [Rio Tinto]

The standout performer was the Copper division, which more than doubled its underlying EBITDA to US$7.4 billion, a 114 per cent increase year-on-year, driven by the ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine in Mongolia and rising copper prices.

Iron ore, however, remains under pressure. Lower realised prices cut Iron Ore EBITDA by 11 per cent to US$15.2 billion, despite near-record Pilbara production volumes. Rio Tinto maintains a 60 per cent ordinary dividend payout ratio and declared a final dividend of 254 US cents per share, fully franked.

Also Read: Glencore and Rio Tinto Restart Merger Talks in $200B+ Mining Industry Shake-Up

Rio Tinto shares have surged 35.98 per cent over the past year to $163.30, making it the strongest price performer of the three. The market has clearly rewarded the company’s copper growth story.

Figure 6: Performance of Rio Tinto’s Stock on the ASX in the Last 12 Months

The Bottom Line

All three companies deliver earnings growth, but their risk profiles differ markedly. Rio Tinto offers commodity leverage and a generous dividend track record. Wesfarmers provides quality and defensive consistency. Lovisa brings high-growth potential with expansion risk. Investors should weigh these dynamics carefully against their own objectives before taking a position.

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Last modified: February 21, 2026
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