Friday marks a critical moment in Donald Trump’s second presidency. Not because of domestic policy or international trade deals, but because the Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce the 2025 Peace Prize winner, and Trump desperately wants it.
The US President has made no secret of his ambitions. “Everyone says I should get the Nobel Peace Prize,” he declared at the UN General Assembly in September. He’s claimed to have ended seven wars in seven months. His administration has actively lobbied Norway. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nominated him. Pakistan followed suit.
But will he actually win? More importantly, should he?
The Nobel Peace Prize medal awaits its 2025 recipient
The Gaza Breakthrough: Trump’s Strongest Card
Late Wednesday night, Trump announced what could be his most significant diplomatic achievement. Israel and Hamas had agreed to phase one of his 20-point plan for Gaza – a ceasefire, hostage releases, and partial Israeli troop withdrawal.
The announcement came after two years of devastating conflict. Over 67,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 7, 2023. The breakthrough followed intensive negotiations in Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh, with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff leading the charge.
Trump took a calculated gamble. When Hamas responded positively to elements of his plan, he immediately declared victory – even before Netanyahu had fully committed. He then publicly ordered Israel to “immediately stop the bombing of Gaza,” boxing the Israeli leader into compliance.
It worked. Within hours, both sides had signed off on the first phase. Hostages would be released. Aid would flow. A 3,000-year catastrophe, as Trump called it, might finally be easing.
“It’s a great day for Israel and for the world,” Trump told reporters, adding that he’d likely travel to the region within days.
The Seven Wars Claim: Fact or Fiction?
Trump’s pitch for the prize rests heavily on his assertion that he’s “ended seven unendable wars.” He’s repeated this claim for months, listing conflicts between:
- Cambodia and Thailand
- Kosovo and Serbia
- Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda
- Pakistan and India
- Israel and Iran
- Egypt and Ethiopia
- Armenia and Azerbaijan
Fact-checkers have been busy. CNN, PolitiFact, and international relations experts paint a more complex picture.
What’s Actually True
Trump facilitated meaningful ceasefires between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Cambodia and Thailand, and arguably between Pakistan and India (though India disputes his role). The Armenia-Azerbaijan deal, signed at the White House in August, ended nearly 40 years of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. A corridor through Armenia to Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave will be built – and named the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.”
What’s Questionable
The Congo-Rwanda deal remains fragile, with hundreds of civilians killed since June. Cambodia and Thailand continue accusing each other of violations. The Egypt-Ethiopia dam dispute has no resolution. And Kosovo-Serbia? There’s little evidence a war was even brewing.
The Gaffes
Trump’s lobbying campaign hasn’t been flawless. He confused Armenia with Albania—twice. European leaders were caught on camera mocking him for claiming he’d ended a war between “Albania and Azerbaijan.” At another event, he said he’d stopped fighting between “Armenia and Cambodia.”
Why the Committee Won’t Bite (Probably)
Multiple Nobel experts have told international media that Trump’s chances on Friday are essentially zero.
“He has no chance to get the peace prize at all,” said Asle Sveen, a historian of the award.
Nina Græger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, points to fundamental conflicts with Alfred Nobel’s vision. The prize honors those advancing “peace, disarmament, and international cooperation.”
Trump’s record? He withdrew from the Paris climate accord, exited the WHO, and pulled out of Cold War-era nuclear treaties with Russia. He’s launched trade wars against allies. His administration has cut foreign aid dramatically.
The committee also values institutional independence. Trump’s aggressive lobbying – including calls to Norwegian officials and threats about Norway’s sovereign wealth fund divesting from Caterpillar over Gaza links – hasn’t helped.
“The committee prefers to work independently, sheltering from outside pressures,” Sveen explained.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee maintains strict independence
The Obama Precedent
Trump’s supporters point to Barack Obama, who won just eight months into his presidency in 2009. The committee later regretted that decision, with then-secretary Geir Lundestad admitting the award was premature.
But there’s a key difference. Obama wasn’t publicly demanding the prize. He wasn’t threatening trade consequences. The committee saw potential in his vision of nuclear disarmament and diplomatic engagement.
Henrik Syse, a former Nobel Committee member, notes that controversial winners like Henry Kissinger or South Africa’s F.W. de Klerk had explicitly acknowledged past wrongs and taken concrete steps to correct them. Trump’s narrative is different – he portrays himself as having achieved peace through strength and threats.
What the Betting Markets Say
Polymarket currently gives Trump a 9 per cent chance of winning. He’s tied with Russian human rights campaigner Yulia Navalnaya at 28.57 per cent on Oddspedia.
Leading candidates include humanitarian organisations working in crisis zones – exactly the kind of “quiet, sustained work” Nobel originally intended to honor. Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, the UN refugee agency, and journalists’ rights groups are all in the mix.
The committee may use Friday’s announcement to highlight organisations whose work has become harder due to Trump’s aid cuts and isolationist policies. That would send a clear message.
The “Should” Question
Setting aside whether Trump will win, should he?
The Case For:
The Gaza deal, if it holds, could save thousands of lives. Trump’s aggressive dealmaking, using tariff threats and economic pressure, did produce ceasefires in Armenia-Azerbaijan and Cambodia-Thailand. His willingness to publicly pressure Netanyahu represents a shift in US-Israel relations.
Brett McGurk, who served under four presidents, including Trump, wrote that if Trump successfully ends wars in both Gaza and Ukraine over the next year, “the Nobel committee can and should recognise the achievement.”
The Case Against:
Nobel’s will specifies honoring “fraternity between nations” and “international cooperation.” Trump’s approach has been transactional and isolationist. Several of his claimed “wars” weren’t full-scale conflicts. Others remain unresolved or continue sporadically.
The Gaza deal is only phase one. Thorny issues remain: Hamas disarmament, Gaza’s future governance, Palestinian statehood. Critics note Palestinians were excluded from negotiations. The plan doesn’t address root causes.
Most fundamentally: does threatening trade wars and using economic coercion to stop fighting align with Nobel’s vision of promoting lasting peace?
Trump addressing the UN General Assembly
What Happens Next
The announcement comes Friday morning Norwegian time. Trump will either get his moment of validation or face another rejection,he was nominated repeatedly during his first term without success.
Regardless of tomorrow’s outcome, 2026 may present a better case. If the Gaza ceasefire holds, if hostages return home, if further phases succeed, the optics improve dramatically. The 125th anniversary of the prize would be symbolic timing.
The Ukrainian question looms large too. Trump has promised to end that war quickly. Success there, combined with a stable Gaza, would transform his candidacy.
The Broader Context
Trump’s Nobel campaign reflects changing dynamics in international relations. Traditional multilateralism is giving way to transactional dealmaking. Soft power competes with economic leverage. The question isn’t just whether Trump deserves recognition, but what kind of peacemaking we want to encourage.
For now, Norwegian Nobel Committee members are staying silent. Their 50-year confidentiality rule means we won’t know internal deliberations until 2075.
But one thing’s certain: win or lose, Trump won’t stop talking about it.
Also Read: Trump Demands Jail Time for Chicago Leaders as Federal Troops Deploy
FAQs
Q: When is the Nobel Peace Prize announced?
A: The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on October 10, 2025, at 11:00 AM CET (7:00 PM AEDT). The award ceremony takes place in Oslo on December 10.
Q:Who nominates candidates for the prize?
A: Eligible nominators include members of national governments, parliamentarians, international judges, university professors, former laureates, and Nobel Committee members. Over 338 candidates were nominated for 2025.
Q: Has Trump been nominated before?
A: Yes. Trump received nominations during his first term and again in 2025 from Israel, Pakistan, Cambodia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. However, nominations made after January 31 count toward the following year.
Q: What are Trump’s actual peace achievements?
A: Trump brokered the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace declaration in August 2025, facilitated ceasefires between Cambodia-Thailand and Pakistan-India (disputed), and most recently secured phase one of a Gaza ceasefire agreement. Several other claimed achievements remain contested or incomplete.
Q: Why doesn’t the committee like Trump?
A: It’s not personal bias. Experts note Trump’s policies—withdrawing from international agreements, launching trade wars, cutting aid—conflict with Nobel’s criteria emphasizing “international cooperation” and “fraternity between nations.” His aggressive lobbying also contradicts committee independence.
Q: Could Trump still win in 2026?
A: Possibly. If the Gaza peace holds and he resolves the Ukraine conflict, his case would strengthen significantly. The 2026 prize, marking the award’s 125th anniversary, could be symbolically meaningful timing.
