The Australian sharemarket closed higher on Thursday, 17 July, with the S&P/ASX 200 adding 63.2 points or +0.85% to end the session at 7,842.3-an increase that had the index just shy of 0.1% away from its record high achieved just two days prior. Optimistic actions from the financials and energy sectors accounted largely for the advance, with losses in lithium and tech counters offsetting part of the day’s gain.
Optimism in the market remained buoyant as investors bet on cuts amid fresh labour market data. However, China’s economy and commodity price declines pressured the outlook.
Will the ASX 200 break its record this week?
ASX 200 Live figures show a market ready to retest historic levels. SPI futures gained 54 points, or +0.6%, by Thursday morning, signalling an early move upward. This momentum followed New York, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, after trading between +0.3 and +0.5 per cent overnight, also saw gains.
Local sentiment saw a bounce off strong breadth, aided by more than 77% of ASX-listed stocks recording either a flat or positive close for the day. Big miners such as BHP climbed +0.7%, with Rio up +0.5%. This collective push across sectors has positioned the ASX 200 close to surpassing its previous record of 7,849.8, set earlier in the week.
ASX Sector Breakdown
What are the ASX top gainers and losers?
Moving on Thursday afternoon report on the best and worst performers included some major players:
On the ascendancy:
- Commonwealth Bank: +1.1%
- Westpac:+1.1%
- NAB: +1.0%
- BHP: +0.7%
- Woodside Energy: +1.5%, helped by stronger oil prices.
The downside group included chiefly the lithium miners. These were the last drops of lithium:
- Pilbara Minerals: −4.85%
- Novonix: −4.1%
- Allkem: −2.7%
- IGO Limited: −3.8%
- Appen Ltd confronted a 3.75% hit from the continued uncertainty in the tech sector.
Why did lithium stocks drop on Thursday?
The lithium sector took a hit from global demand slowdown and declining spot prices. There was increased investor concern that oversupply to continue up to 2026, especially with Chinese EV production showing signs of a slowdown.
There are some analysts suggesting that in the near term, profit weaknesses could tighten, although long-term potential still exists. The market has even factored in numerous quarters of weak earnings for lithium companies, prompting a sell-off across the board.
This acted like a heavy downward force on the ASX materials sector, which therefore ended flat, despite the gains in iron ore and copper producers.
Lithium sector dips as oversupply fears grow amid slowing global demand and weaker Chinese EV output.
Investor outlook: cautious optimism
- SPI futures: Up 54 points to suggest a bullish start
- RBA Rate Cut Odds: 84% chance of rate cut in August
- ASX 200 Performance: Within 0.1% of an all-time high
- Lithium Sector: An across-the-board sell-off of 3–5%
- Labour Data: Weak employment may prompt easing
Institutional investors remain cautiously optimistic. Equity valuations have found support due to the belief that the US and Australian central banks will cut rates shortly. However, the path downhill is lined with falling resource prices and soft economic data.
Analysts expect the short-term volatility to continue, particularly in mining stocks and tech stocks. Nonetheless, the medium-term sentiment remains supported by easing across the globe and resilient corporate earnings forecasts.
What does rising unemployment mean for investors?
Again, Australia’s unemployment rate, published in June, rose to 4.3%, with 4.1% being the figure for May. 2,000 new jobs were registered during the month, less than one-tenth of the 20,000 predicted by economists. This figure is the highest rate since late 2021.
Interest rate expectations are being altered because of this data. The nearest futures market now prices an 84% chance of an RBA rate cut in August, with many traders betting such relief will come in October at the very latest.
A slight dip ensued for the Aussie dollar over the news, falling barely below the US$0.6720. Bond yields fell as well, in line with rising market expectations of monetary easing.
Can miners and banks sustain the ASX’s momentum?
Major mining company results are due this week for the quarter. This includes the June quarter results for Genesis Minerals, Gold Road Resources, and 29Metals.
The investor’s eyes would be glued to this scenario to see what softer commodity prices and rising production costs could mean. While the big four banks have been going strong of late, rising demand for home loans and stable margins are building confidence in investors. At this current pace, they stand to keep anchoring the ASX 200 Live performances going through July.
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Final thoughts
Thursday on the ASX was a market sitting on the fence between optimism and economic caution. Investors cheered strong bank performance and the prospect of rate cuts, but the flipping of lithium prices and the rising unemployment rate reminded them of the underlying fragilities. Local: The ASX 200 Live is just 10 points away from a fresh record high. The sights will now turn toward quarterly earnings and RBA commentary. For now, momentum is all with the bulls; an eye of caution, however, watches global demand and domestic data.
